TableChase Clubs

Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU12 · 9 teams · Sting Corpus Christi (all teams)

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9th
1-1-6 record · 8 played
0.50 points per game
-36 goal diff · 10–46
LWLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.7
+0.24 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald
9th · 0.50 PPG
vs
Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red
8th · 0.50 PPG

ASP / CC, Field 5A ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.9 for, 4.1 against · 0.51 expected points)

Season so farSting CC Pre- STXCL HealdBoerne SC Pre- STXCL Red
Position9th8th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-60-2-2
Points per game0.500.50
Goals for / game1.32.0
Goals against / game5.83.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)L L L W LD D
Biggest win3–1 at San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red—
Worst loss1–9 vs Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.78-0.16
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.24+0.65

Common opponents: BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL — we 0–8; they 4–4. Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED — we 0–3; they 2–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–8 vs BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL, 0–3 at Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 13%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red sit 8th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.50.

    A point moves us above Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald – Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.44 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Win
0.78 PPG		 6th▲ up 3 6th▲ up 3 9th— holds
Draw
0.56 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Loss
0.44 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 6%
  8. 8th 17%
  9. 9th 76%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL 2.60 (+2.10) 1st (2.48) 22 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL 2.29 (+1.79) 2nd (2.15) 19 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED 1.33 (+0.83) 3rd (1.22) 10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL 0.80 (+0.30) 6th (1.13) 4 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 JSA FC Pre- STXCL 0.80 (+0.30) 4th (1.19) 4 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL 0.67 (+0.17) 8th (0.72) A point next game
7 San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red 0.67 (+0.17) 7th (0.78) A point next game
8 Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red 0.50 (+0.00) 5th (1.16) Already ahead

How the results connect

5 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald to Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
4 favour them
-3.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 2–2 0–8 4–4 3–1 0–1 2–3 1–4 2–5 Sting CC Pre- STXCL… 9th Lions FC Pre- STXCL… 3rd BTX Soccer Club Pre… 2nd San Antonio FC Pre-… 7th Hill Country United… 6th Boerne SC Pre- STXC… 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 5th 9th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 25 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.29 · 7th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM		 Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red
8th · 0-2-2 · GD -4		 Home
ASP / CC		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–4 0.51 0.50 Upside
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM		 JSA FC Pre- STXCL
5th · 1-1-3 · GD -9		 Home
ASP / CC		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 2–4 0.56 0.51 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL 5410 246+18 132.60 WWD -1.14 -0.06 100% 1.2
2 BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL 7511 2812+16 162.29 WWDWW -1.06 +0.62 100% 1.9
3 Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED 6222 1621-5 81.33 WDDW -1.16 +0.65 49% 4.6
4 Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL 5113 1616+0 40.80 WLL -0.40 -0.12 44% 4.9
5 JSA FC Pre- STXCL 5113 1120-9 40.80 LWD +0.43 -0.56 48% 4.8
6 Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL 6114 1019-9 40.67 LLLW -0.59 +0.34 4% 7.2
7 San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red 6114 818-10 40.67 WLLD -0.09 -0.16 7% 6.9
8 Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red 4022 812-4 20.50 DD +0.65 -0.51 48% 4.8
9 Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald 8116 1046-36 40.50 LWLLL +0.24 -0.29 0% 8.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.87 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.