Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU12 · 9 teams · Boerne SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.0 for, 2.8 against · 1.51 expected points)
| Season so far | Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red | Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-2-2 | 1-1-3 |
| Points per game | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 3.2 |
| Goals against / game | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D D | L L W |
| Biggest win | — | 7–1 vs Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald |
| Worst loss | — | 0–4 vs Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.16 | +0.01 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.65 | -0.40 |
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 45% / draw 17% / loss 38%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red sit 7th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.50.A point moves us above San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red – Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.00 PPG |
4th▲ up 4 | 4th▲ up 4 | 7th▲ up 1 |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
4th▲ up 4 | 4th▲ up 4 | 7th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.60 PPG |
8th— holds | 7th▲ up 1 | 8th— holds |
| Loss 0.40 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 26%
- 4th 21%
- 5th 19%
- 6th 17%
- 7th 9%
- 8th 5%
- 9th 2%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL | 2.60 (+2.10) | 1st (2.48) | 24 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL | 2.29 (+1.79) | 2nd (2.15) | 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED | 1.33 (+0.83) | 3rd (1.22) | 12 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 4 | Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL | 0.80 (+0.30) | 6th (1.13) | A point next game |
| 5 | JSA FC Pre- STXCL | 0.80 (+0.30) | 4th (1.19) | A point next game |
| 6 | Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL | 0.67 (+0.17) | 8th (0.72) | A point next game |
| 7 | San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red | 0.67 (+0.17) | 7th (0.78) | A point next game |
How the results connect
4 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red to Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.51 · 8th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM |
Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL 4th · 1-1-3 · GD +0 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
3–2 | 1.51 | 0.70 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald 9th · 1-1-6 · GD -36 |
Away far trip
ASP / CC |
●○○○○ Favorable | 75% |
4–1 | 2.37 | 0.98 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 04:00 PM |
JSA FC Pre- STXCL 5th · 1-1-3 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
ASP / CC |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
2–3 | 1.35 | 1.03 | Upside |
| Fri Nov 13 07:00 PM |
San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -10 |
Home Boerne City Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.88 | 1.14 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM |
Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL 6th · 1-1-4 · GD -9 |
Home Boerne City Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
3–2 | 2.02 | 1.24 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 10:00 AM |
Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL 1st · 4-1-0 · GD +18 |
Away far trip
Blossom Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–4 | 0.44 | 1.16 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 6 | +18 | 13 | 2.60 | WWD | -1.14 | -0.06 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED · Sun Oct 25 at Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 12 | +16 | 16 | 2.29 | WWDWW | -1.06 | +0.62 | 100% | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 8 | 1.33 | WDDW | -1.16 | +0.65 | 49% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 23 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 16 | +0 | 4 | 0.80 | WLL | -0.40 | -0.12 | 46% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Oct 25 at BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | JSA FC Pre- STXCL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 4 | 0.80 | LWD | +0.43 | -0.56 | 45% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Oct 31 vs Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 4 | 0.67 | LLLW | -0.59 | +0.34 | 4% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at JSA FC Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 4 | 0.67 | WLLD | -0.09 | -0.16 | 8% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 23 at Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED · Sun Oct 25 at JSA FC Pre- STXCL · Fri Nov 13 at Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 2 | 0.50 | DD | +0.65 | -0.51 | 48% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald · Sat Nov 7 at JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 46 | -36 | 4 | 0.50 | LWLLL | +0.24 | -0.29 | 0% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Nov 15 vs JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.87 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.