San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU12 · 9 teams · San Antonio FC (all teams)

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7th

1-1-4 record · 6 played

0.67 points per game

-10 goal diff · 8–18

WLLDlast 4

8% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.9

-0.09 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Fri Oct 23, 07:00 PM

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San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red
7th · 0.67 PPG

Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED
3rd · 1.33 PPG

Lions Pride Park, Field 15A ↗

25% 17% 58%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.9 for, 2.8 against · 0.91 expected points)

Season so far	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED
Position	7th	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	1-1-4	2-2-2
Points per game	0.67	1.33
Goals for / game	1.3	2.7
Goals against / game	3.0	3.5
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	D L L W	W D D W
Biggest win	3–1 vs Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL	5–2 vs Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL
Worst loss	1–3 vs Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.73	-0.08
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.09	-1.16

Common opponents: Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL — we 3–1; they 5–2. Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald — we 1–3; they 3–0.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 25%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 07:00 PM at Lions Pride Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL sit 6th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.67.
A point moves us above Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Friday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red – Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.57 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	9th▼ down 2
Win 1.00 PPG	4th▲ up 3	5th▲ up 2	7th— holds
Draw 0.71 PPG	6th▲ up 1	6th▲ up 1	9th▼ down 2
Loss 0.57 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

8% top 4

92% below the top 4

6.9 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd 3%
4th 5%
5th 9%
6th 15%
7th 29%
8th 31%
9th 9%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.60 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL	2.60 (+1.93)	1st (2.48)	22 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL	2.29 (+1.62)	2nd (2.15)	19 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED	1.33 (+0.66)	3rd (1.22)	10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
4	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL	0.80 (+0.13)	6th (1.13)	A point next game
5	JSA FC Pre- STXCL	0.80 (+0.13)	4th (1.19)	A point next game
6	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL	0.67 (+0.00)	8th (0.72)	Already ahead

How the results connect

9 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red to Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us

2 even

5 favour them

-0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.16 · 6th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Fri Oct 23 07:00 PM	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED 3rd · 2-2-2 · GD -5	Away Lions Pride Park	●●●●● Very tough	25%	1–2	0.91	0.70	Upside
Sun Oct 25 11:30 AM	JSA FC Pre- STXCL 5th · 1-1-3 · GD -9	Away ASP / CC	●●●●○ Tough	28%	2–2	1.02	0.74	Upside
Fri Nov 13 07:00 PM	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red 8th · 0-2-2 · GD -4	Away far trip Boerne City Park	●●●●○ Tough	26%	1–2	0.95	0.76	Upside
Sat Nov 14 02:30 PM	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL 4th · 1-1-3 · GD +0	Away ASP / CC	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–3	0.87	0.78	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL

+18

2.60

WWD

-1.14

-0.06

100%

1.2

D	Mon Sep 28	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (4th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	9–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED · Sun Oct 25 at Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (3rd)	4–1	78%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (6th)	4–1	80%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (5th)	4–1	83%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–2	54%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	4–1	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL

+16

2.29

WWDWW

-1.06

+0.62

100%

1.9

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	8–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	4–4
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (6th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (5th)	4–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (4th)	3–2	71%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–3	29%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (3rd)	3–1	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED

-5

1.33

WDDW

-1.16

+0.65

47%

4.7

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	3–0
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (5th)	4–4
D	Fri Sep 25	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (6th)	5–2

Next: Fri Oct 23 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 23	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–4	12%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (4th)	2–3	34%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–3	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL

0.80

WLL

-0.40

-0.12

47%

4.8

L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (5th)	3–4
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	7–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Oct 25 at BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	2–3	38%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	2–3	17%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (3rd)	3–2	49%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (6th)	3–2	54%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	3–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

JSA FC Pre- STXCL

-9

0.80

LWD

+0.43

-0.56

47%

4.8

D	Sat Sep 26	at	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (3rd)	4–4
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (4th)	4–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Oct 31 vs Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	2–2	54%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (6th)	3–2	60%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	3–2	44%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	4–2	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL

-9

0.67

LLLW

-0.59

+0.34

7.2

W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (3rd)	2–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at JSA FC Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–4	10%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–3	25%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (4th)	2–3	30%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	2–3	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red

-10

0.67

WLLD

-0.09

-0.16

6.9

D	Mon Sep 28	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	3–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (6th)	3–1

Next: Fri Oct 23 at Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED · Sun Oct 25 at JSA FC Pre- STXCL · Fri Nov 13 at Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 23	at	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (3rd)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–2	28%
·	Fri Nov 13	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–3	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red

-4

0.50

+0.65

-0.51

47%

4.9

D	Fri Sep 25	vs	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (3rd)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 19	at	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	4–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald · Sat Nov 7 at JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (4th)	3–2	45%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	4–1	75%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–3	39%
·	Fri Nov 13	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (6th)	3–2	62%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–4	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald

-36

0.50

LWLLL

+0.24

-0.29

8.6

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (3rd)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–8
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (6th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–9
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–7

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Nov 15 vs JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	1–4	13%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–4	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.87 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.