Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU12 · 9 teams · Lonestar SAT (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 1 hour ago.

Add schedule to calendar

1st

4-1-0 record · 5 played

2.60 points per game

+18 goal diff · 24–6

WWDlast 3

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.1

-0.94 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:30 AM

Open the match preview →

Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL
1st · 2.60 PPG

Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED
3rd · 1.14 PPG

Blossom Soccer Complex, Field 4 ↗

84% 8%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.8 for, 1.8 against · 2.60 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED
Position	1st	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-0	2-2-3
Points per game	2.60	1.14
Goals for / game	4.8	2.4
Goals against / game	1.2	3.7
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	D W W	L W D D W
Biggest win	9–1 at Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald	5–2 vs Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL
Worst loss	—	1–5 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.96	-0.58
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.94	-0.95

Common opponents: Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald — we 9–1; they 3–0. San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red — we 3–3; they 1–5.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 84% chance; likely score 4–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL – Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.33 PPG	1st— holds	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1
Loss 2.17 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

86% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.1 average finish

1st 86%
2nd 14%
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

8 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL to Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us

2 favour them

+3.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.17 · 5th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 11:30 AM	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED 3rd · 2-2-3 · GD -9	Home Blossom Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	84%	4–1	2.60	2.60	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 02:30 PM	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -9	Away far trip Fredericksburg Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	4–1	2.51	2.59	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 04:00 PM	JSA FC Pre- STXCL 6th · 1-1-3 · GD -9	Home Blossom Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	5–1	2.59	2.59	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 02:30 PM	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +16	Home ASP / CC	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	3–2	1.81	2.50	Swing game
Sun Nov 15 10:00 AM	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red 8th · 0-2-2 · GD -4	Home Blossom Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	79%	4–1	2.48	2.50	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL

+18

2.60

WWD

-0.94

-0.17

100%

1.1

D	Mon Sep 28	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (5th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	9–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED · Sun Oct 25 at Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (3rd)	4–1	84%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (7th)	4–1	80%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	5–1	83%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–2	55%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	4–1	79%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL

+16

2.29

WWDWW

-0.96

+0.47

100%

1.9

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	8–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	4–4
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	4–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (5th)	3–2	71%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–3	29%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (3rd)	4–1	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED

-9

1.14

WDDWL

-0.95

+1.14

12%

6.1

L	Fri Oct 23	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	1–5
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	3–0
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	4–4
D	Fri Sep 25	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (7th)	5–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–4	8%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–3	27%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–4	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red

-6

1.00

WLLDW

-0.18

-0.23

36%

5.2

W	Fri Oct 23	at	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (3rd)	5–1
D	Mon Sep 28	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	3–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (7th)	3–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at JSA FC Pre- STXCL · Fri Nov 13 at Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Nov 14 at Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–2	39%
·	Fri Nov 13	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL

0.80

WLL

-0.39

-0.11

52%

4.8

L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–4
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	7–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Oct 25 at BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	2–3	16%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (3rd)	3–2	58%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (7th)	3–2	53%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	2–2	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

JSA FC Pre- STXCL

-9

0.80

LWD

+0.27

-0.44

46%

5.0

D	Sat Sep 26	at	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (3rd)	4–4
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (5th)	4–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Oct 31 vs Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (7th)	3–2	59%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–5	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	3–2	44%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	4–2	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL

-9

0.67

LLLW

-0.56

+0.32

7.3

W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (3rd)	2–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at JSA FC Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–4	10%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–3	26%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–3	30%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	2–3	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red

-4

0.50

+0.41

-0.41

48%

5.0

D	Fri Sep 25	vs	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (3rd)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 19	at	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	4–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald · Sat Nov 7 at JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–2	44%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–3	39%
·	Fri Nov 13	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (7th)	3–2	61%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–4	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald

-36

0.50

LWLLL

+0.25

-0.35

8.7

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (3rd)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–8
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (7th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (4th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–9
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (5th)	1–7

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Nov 15 vs JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–4	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.