Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU12 · 9 teams · Hill Country United (all teams)

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7th

1-1-4 record · 6 played

0.67 points per game

-9 goal diff · 10–19

LLLWlast 4

4% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.3

-0.72 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:30 PM

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Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL
7th · 0.67 PPG

Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL
1st · 2.67 PPG

Fredericksburg Soccer Park, Field 5B ↗

6% 87%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.5 for, 4.7 against · 0.25 expected points)

Season so far	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL
Position	7th	1st
Record (W-D-L)	1-1-4	5-1-0
Points per game	0.67	2.67
Goals for / game	1.7	5.3
Goals against / game	3.2	1.0
Clean sheets	0	2
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W L L L	W D W W
Biggest win	3–2 vs Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald	9–1 at Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald
Worst loss	1–4 vs BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.07	+2.67
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.72	-1.00

Common opponents: San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red — we 1–3; they 3–3. Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED — we 2–5; they 8–0. Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald — we 3–2; they 9–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL score 5.3/game — well above the league's 2.9.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL concede only 1.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 6%; a draw (7%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
What a win does
JSA FC Pre- STXCL sit 6th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.67.
A point moves us above JSA FC Pre- STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL – Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.57 PPG	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1	9th▼ down 2
Win 1.00 PPG	4th▲ up 3	5th▲ up 2	7th— holds
Draw 0.71 PPG	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1	9th▼ down 2
Loss 0.57 PPG	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1	9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

4% top 4

96% below the top 4

7.3 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd 1%
4th 3%
5th 6%
6th 13%
7th 16%
8th 47%
9th 14%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.60 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL	2.67 (+2.00)	1st (2.62)	23 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL	2.29 (+1.62)	2nd (2.16)	19 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red	1.00 (+0.33)	6th (1.08)	Win next game
4	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED	1.00 (+0.33)	7th (0.90)	Win next game
5	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL	0.80 (+0.13)	3rd (1.17)	A point next game
6	JSA FC Pre- STXCL	0.80 (+0.13)	4th (1.13)	A point next game

How the results connect

12 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL to Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

11 favour them

-6.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.49 · 3rd hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 02:30 PM	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +26	Home Fredericksburg Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	6%	1–4	0.25	0.61	Upside
Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM	JSA FC Pre- STXCL 6th · 1-1-3 · GD -9	Away far trip ASP / CC	●●●●○ Tough	26%	2–3	0.93	0.65	Upside
Sun Nov 8 10:00 AM	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL 5th · 1-1-3 · GD +0	Home Fredericksburg Soccer Park	●●●●○ Tough	29%	2–3	1.03	0.69	Upside
Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red 8th · 0-2-2 · GD -4	Away far trip Boerne City Park	●●●●● Very tough	24%	2–3	0.87	0.71	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL

+26

2.67

WWDW

-1.00

-0.11

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (4th)	8–0
D	Mon Sep 28	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (5th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	9–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs JSA FC Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (7th)	4–1	87%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	5–1	90%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–2	66%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	4–1	87%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL

+16

2.29

WWDWW

-0.99

+0.51

100%

2.0

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	8–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	4–4
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	4–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (5th)	3–2	70%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–3	20%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (4th)	4–1	85%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red

-6

1.00

WLLDW

-0.19

-0.24

39%

5.1

W	Fri Oct 23	at	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (4th)	5–1
D	Mon Sep 28	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	3–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (7th)	3–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at JSA FC Pre- STXCL · Fri Nov 13 at Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Nov 14 at Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–2	40%
·	Fri Nov 13	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED

-17

1.00

DDWLL

-0.31

+0.74

6.5

L	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–8
L	Fri Oct 23	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	1–5
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	3–0
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	4–4
D	Fri Sep 25	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (7th)	5–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–4	19%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–4	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL

0.80

WLL

-0.16

-0.26

60%

4.5

L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–4
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	7–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Oct 25 at BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	2–3	17%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (4th)	4–2	68%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (7th)	3–2	55%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	2–2	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

JSA FC Pre- STXCL

-9

0.80

LWD

+0.06

-0.32

46%

4.9

D	Sat Sep 26	at	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (4th)	4–4
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (5th)	4–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Oct 31 vs Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (7th)	3–2	58%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–5	5%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	3–2	44%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	4–2	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL

-9

0.67

LLLW

-0.72

+0.49

7.3

W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (4th)	2–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at JSA FC Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–3	26%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–3	29%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	2–3	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red

-4

0.50

+0.09

-0.29

45%

5.0

D	Fri Sep 25	vs	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (4th)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 19	at	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	4–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald · Sat Nov 7 at JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–2	42%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald (9th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–3	39%
·	Fri Nov 13	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (7th)	3–2	60%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–4	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting CC Pre- STXCL Heald

-36

0.50

LWLLL

+0.24

-0.40

8.7

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (4th)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–8
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Hill Country United SC PRE- STXCL (7th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–9
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (5th)	1–7

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Nov 15 vs JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (8th)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–4	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.94 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.