Union FC Indy Teal I

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU12 (2014-2015) 9v9 · 5 teams · Union FC Indy (all teams)

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2nd

3-0-2 record · 5 played

1.80 points per game

+7 goal diff · 12–5

WLWWLlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.7

-0.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Union FC Indy Teal I
2nd · 1.80 PPG

FC Storm Premier 2
4th · 1.00 PPG

Union FC Indy Soccer Complex, Turf Field South ↗ · turf

75% 13% 12%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.5 for, 1.5 against · 2.37 expected points)

Season so far	Union FC Indy Teal I	FC Storm Premier 2
Position	2nd	4th
Record (W-D-L)	3-0-2	1-1-2
Points per game	1.80	1.00
Goals for / game	2.4	2.5
Goals against / game	1.0	4.0
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	L W W L W	D L L W
Biggest win	5–1 at Elite FC Pre	2–1 at Lakota FC Red
Worst loss	0–1 at CUSC Premier	3–7 vs Lakota FC Red
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.82	-0.90
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.12	+0.01

Already played this season: Sat Oct 3 3–0 at FC Storm Premier 2 (W)

Common opponents: Elite FC Pre — we 5–1; they 5–5. Lakota FC Red — we 3–1, 1–2; they 2–1, 3–7.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
FC Storm Premier 2 concede 4.0/game; worst result 3–7 vs Lakota FC Red.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at CUSC Premier.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Storm Premier 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Union FC Indy Teal I – FC Storm Premier 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 1.67 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1
Loss 1.50 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

38% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.7 average finish

1st 38%
2nd 57%
3rd 4%
4th 1%
5th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	CUSC Premier	2.33 (+0.53)	1st (2.07)	10 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection

How the results connect

12 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Union FC Indy Teal I to FC Storm Premier 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us

3 favour them

+2.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.28 · 5th hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	FC Storm Premier 2 4th · 1-1-2 · GD -6	Home Union FC Indy Soccer Complex · turf	●●○○○ Lean win	75%	3–1	2.37	1.90	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM	Elite FC Pre 5th · 1-2-2 · GD -8	Home Union FC Indy Soccer Complex · turf	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	3–1	2.36	1.96	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM	CUSC Premier 1st · 2-1-0 · GD +6	Home Union FC Indy Soccer Complex · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	1–1	1.53	1.91	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

CUSC Premier

2.33

WDW

-0.36

-0.16

100%

1.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Elite FC Pre (5th)	5–0
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Elite FC Pre (5th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	1–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 at FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Oct 24 at Lakota FC Red · Sun Oct 25 vs Lakota FC Red See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Union FC Indy Teal I

1.80

WLWWL

-0.12

-0.28

100%

1.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	CUSC Premier (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Elite FC Pre (5th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Elite FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs CUSC Premier See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Elite FC Pre (5th)	3–1	74%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	CUSC Premier (1st)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lakota FC Red

1.20

LLLWW

-0.15

+0.32

91%

3.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	7–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Elite FC Pre (5th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CUSC Premier · Sun Oct 25 at CUSC Premier · Sun Nov 8 at Elite FC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	CUSC Premier (1st)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	CUSC Premier (1st)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Elite FC Pre (5th)	3–2	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Storm Premier 2

-6

1.00

WLLD

+0.01

+0.45

40%

4.5

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Elite FC Pre (5th)	5–5
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	3–7
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	2–1

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs CUSC Premier · Sat Oct 24 at Union FC Indy Teal I · Sat Oct 31 at Elite FC Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	CUSC Premier (1st)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Elite FC Pre (5th)	3–3	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	CUSC Premier (1st)	1–3	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Elite FC Pre

-8

1.00

LWDLD

+0.35

+0.00

70%

4.0

D	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	5–5
L	Sat Oct 17	at	CUSC Premier (1st)	0–5
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	CUSC Premier (1st)	3–3
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	3–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC Indy Teal I · Sun Nov 8 vs Lakota FC Red See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	3–3	50%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	2–3	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.