Elite FC Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU12 (2014-2015) 9v9 · 5 teams · Elite FC (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 7 minutes ago.

Add schedule to calendar

5th

1-2-2 record · 5 played

1.00 points per game

-8 goal diff · 12–20

LWDLDlast 5

70% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.0

+0.35 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 01:00 PM

Open the match preview →

Elite FC Pre
5th · 1.00 PPG

FC Storm Premier 2
4th · 1.00 PPG

Shelly Park, field A1 ↗

50% 15% 35%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 3–3 (expected goals 3.7 for, 3.2 against · 1.65 expected points)

Season so far	Elite FC Pre	FC Storm Premier 2
Position	5th	4th
Record (W-D-L)	1-2-2	1-1-2
Points per game	1.00	1.00
Goals for / game	2.4	2.5
Goals against / game	4.0	4.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	D L D W L	D L L W
Biggest win	3–2 at Lakota FC Red	2–1 at Lakota FC Red
Worst loss	0–5 at CUSC Premier	3–7 vs Lakota FC Red
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.85	-0.90
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.35	+0.01

Already played this season: Sat Oct 17 5–5 at FC Storm Premier 2 (D)

Common opponents: Union FC Indy Teal I — we 1–5; they 0–3. Lakota FC Red — we 3–2; they 2–1, 3–7.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
FC Storm Premier 2 concede 4.0/game; worst result 3–7 vs Lakota FC Red.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 at CUSC Premier.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 50% / draw 15% / loss 35%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
What a win does
FC Storm Premier 2 sit 4th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.
A point moves us above FC Storm Premier 2 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Storm Premier 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Elite FC Pre – FC Storm Premier 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.00 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Win 1.33 PPG	3rd▲ up 2	3rd▲ up 2	3rd▲ up 2
Draw 1.00 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Loss 0.83 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–3 draw we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

70% top 4

30% below the top 4

4.0 average finish

1st <1%
2nd 2%
3rd 26%
4th 41%
5th 30%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.75 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	CUSC Premier	2.33 (+1.33)	1st (2.07)	14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Union FC Indy Teal I	1.80 (+0.80)	2nd (1.91)	10 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Lakota FC Red	1.20 (+0.20)	3rd (1.20)	A point next game
4	FC Storm Premier 2	1.00 (+0.00)	5th (0.86)	A point next game

How the results connect

12 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Elite FC Pre to FC Storm Premier 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us

2 even

5 favour them

+0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 3rd hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM	FC Storm Premier 2 4th · 1-1-2 · GD -6	Home Shelly Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	3–3	1.65	1.11	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM	Union FC Indy Teal I 2nd · 3-0-2 · GD +7	Away far trip Union FC Indy Soccer Complex · turf	●●●●● Very tough	13%	1–3	0.51	1.02	Upside
Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM	Lakota FC Red 3rd · 2-0-3 · GD +1	Home Shelly Park	●●●●○ Tough	33%	2–3	1.15	1.04	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

CUSC Premier

2.33

WDW

-0.36

-0.16

100%

1.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Elite FC Pre (5th)	5–0
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Elite FC Pre (5th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	1–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 at FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Oct 24 at Lakota FC Red · Sun Oct 25 vs Lakota FC Red See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Union FC Indy Teal I

1.80

WLWWL

-0.12

-0.28

100%

1.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	CUSC Premier (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Elite FC Pre (5th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Elite FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs CUSC Premier See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Elite FC Pre (5th)	3–1	74%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	CUSC Premier (1st)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lakota FC Red

1.20

LLLWW

-0.15

+0.32

91%

3.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	7–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Elite FC Pre (5th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CUSC Premier · Sun Oct 25 at CUSC Premier · Sun Nov 8 at Elite FC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	CUSC Premier (1st)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	CUSC Premier (1st)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Elite FC Pre (5th)	3–2	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Storm Premier 2

-6

1.00

WLLD

+0.01

+0.45

40%

4.5

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Elite FC Pre (5th)	5–5
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	3–7
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	2–1

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs CUSC Premier · Sat Oct 24 at Union FC Indy Teal I · Sat Oct 31 at Elite FC Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	CUSC Premier (1st)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Elite FC Pre (5th)	3–3	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	CUSC Premier (1st)	1–3	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Elite FC Pre

-8

1.00

LWDLD

+0.35

+0.00

70%

4.0

D	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	5–5
L	Sat Oct 17	at	CUSC Premier (1st)	0–5
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	CUSC Premier (1st)	3–3
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	3–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC Indy Teal I · Sun Nov 8 vs Lakota FC Red See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	3–3	50%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	2–3	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.