FC Storm Premier 2

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU12 (2014-2015) 9v9 · 5 teams · FC Storm (all teams)

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4th

1-1-2 record · 4 played

1.00 points per game

-6 goal diff · 10–16

WLLDlast 4

41% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.5

+0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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FC Storm Premier 2
4th · 1.00 PPG

Union FC Indy Teal I
2nd · 1.80 PPG

Union FC Indy Soccer Complex, Turf Field South ↗ · turf far trip

12% 13% 75%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.5 for, 3.5 against · 0.50 expected points)

Season so far	FC Storm Premier 2	Union FC Indy Teal I
Position	4th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	1-1-2	3-0-2
Points per game	1.00	1.80
Goals for / game	2.5	2.4
Goals against / game	4.0	1.0
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	D L L W	L W W L W
Biggest win	2–1 at Lakota FC Red	5–1 at Elite FC Pre
Worst loss	3–7 vs Lakota FC Red	0–1 at CUSC Premier
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.90	+0.82
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.01	-0.12

Already played this season: Sat Oct 3 0–3 vs Union FC Indy Teal I (L)

Common opponents: Lakota FC Red — we 2–1, 3–7; they 3–1, 1–2. Elite FC Pre — we 5–5; they 5–1.

Game plan

Hard to break down
Union FC Indy Teal I concede only 1.0/game with 1 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs Union FC Indy Teal I.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 12%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Union FC Indy Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Lakota FC Red sit 3rd on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.00.
A point moves us above Lakota FC Red on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Union FC Indy Teal I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Storm Premier 2 – Union FC Indy Teal I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.80 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1
Win 1.40 PPG	3rd▲ up 1	3rd▲ up 1	4th— holds
Draw 1.00 PPG	4th— holds	3rd▲ up 1	4th— holds
Loss 0.80 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we fall to at least 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

41% top 4

60% below the top 4

4.5 average finish

1st <1%
2nd 1%
3rd 9%
4th 30%
5th 60%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	CUSC Premier	2.33 (+1.33)	1st (2.07)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Union FC Indy Teal I	1.80 (+0.80)	2nd (1.91)	11 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
3	Lakota FC Red	1.20 (+0.20)	3rd (1.20)	A point next game

How the results connect

12 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link FC Storm Premier 2 to Union FC Indy Teal I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us

9 favour them

-2.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.45 · 1st hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Mon Jan 1 TBD no score posted	CUSC Premier 1st · 2-1-0 · GD +6	Home	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–3	0.70	0.94	Upside
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	Union FC Indy Teal I 2nd · 3-0-2 · GD +7	Away far trip Union FC Indy Soccer Complex · turf	●●●●● Very tough	12%	1–3	0.50	0.87	Upside
Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM	Elite FC Pre 5th · 1-2-2 · GD -8	Away far trip Shelly Park	●●●●○ Tough	35%	3–3	1.20	0.91	Upside
Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM	CUSC Premier 1st · 2-1-0 · GD +6	Away far trip Lebanon Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	12%	1–3	0.47	0.86	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

CUSC Premier

2.33

WDW

-0.36

-0.16

100%

1.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Elite FC Pre (5th)	5–0
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Elite FC Pre (5th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	1–0

Next: Mon Jan 1 at FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Oct 24 at Lakota FC Red · Sun Oct 25 vs Lakota FC Red See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Union FC Indy Teal I

1.80

WLWWL

-0.12

-0.28

100%

1.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	CUSC Premier (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Elite FC Pre (5th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Elite FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs CUSC Premier See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Elite FC Pre (5th)	3–1	74%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	CUSC Premier (1st)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lakota FC Red

1.20

LLLWW

-0.15

+0.32

91%

3.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	7–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Elite FC Pre (5th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CUSC Premier · Sun Oct 25 at CUSC Premier · Sun Nov 8 at Elite FC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	CUSC Premier (1st)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	CUSC Premier (1st)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Elite FC Pre (5th)	3–2	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Storm Premier 2

-6

1.00

WLLD

+0.01

+0.45

41%

4.5

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Elite FC Pre (5th)	5–5
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	3–7
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	2–1

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs CUSC Premier · Sat Oct 24 at Union FC Indy Teal I · Sat Oct 31 at Elite FC Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	CUSC Premier (1st)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Elite FC Pre (5th)	3–3	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	CUSC Premier (1st)	1–3	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Elite FC Pre

-8

1.00

LWDLD

+0.35

+0.00

69%

4.0

D	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	5–5
L	Sat Oct 17	at	CUSC Premier (1st)	0–5
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	CUSC Premier (1st)	3–3
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	3–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC Indy Teal I · Sun Nov 8 vs Lakota FC Red See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Storm Premier 2 (4th)	3–3	50%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lakota FC Red (3rd)	2–3	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.