Lakota FC Red
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU12 (2014-2015) 9v9 · 5 teams · Lakota Futbol Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:30 AM
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.9 for, 2.5 against · 1.10 expected points)
| Season so far | Lakota FC Red | CUSC Premier |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-3 | 2-1-0 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / game | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| Goals against / game | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L L L | W D W |
| Biggest win | 7–3 at FC Storm Premier 2 | 5–0 vs Elite FC Pre |
| Worst loss | 1–3 vs Union FC Indy Teal I | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.08 | +0.91 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.15 | -0.36 |
Common opponents: Elite FC Pre — we 2–3; they 3–3, 5–0. Union FC Indy Teal I — we 1–3, 2–1; they 1–0.
Game plan
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Hard to break down
CUSC Premier concede only 1.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 30%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the CUSC Premier game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lakota FC Red – CUSC Premier) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.17 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 7%
- 3rd 55%
- 4th 28%
- 5th 9%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CUSC Premier | 2.33 (+1.13) | 1st (2.07) | 13 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Union FC Indy Teal I | 1.80 (+0.60) | 2nd (1.91) | 9 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
15 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Lakota FC Red to CUSC Premier through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.32 · 2nd hardest of 5
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:30 AM |
CUSC Premier 1st · 2-1-0 · GD +6 |
Home Line Hill |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.10 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
CUSC Premier 1st · 2-1-0 · GD +6 |
Away Marr Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.82 | 1.13 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM |
Elite FC Pre 5th · 1-2-2 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Shelly Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
3–2 | 1.69 | 1.20 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | CUSC Premier | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 7 | 2.33 | WDW | -0.36 | -0.16 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Oct 24 at Lakota FC Red · Sun Oct 25 vs Lakota FC Red See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Union FC Indy Teal I | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 9 | 1.80 | WLWWL | -0.12 | -0.28 | 100% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Elite FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs CUSC Premier See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Lakota FC Red | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 6 | 1.20 | LLLWW | -0.15 | +0.32 | 91% | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CUSC Premier · Sun Oct 25 at CUSC Premier · Sun Nov 8 at Elite FC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Storm Premier 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 4 | 1.00 | WLLD | +0.01 | +0.45 | 40% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs CUSC Premier · Sat Oct 24 at Union FC Indy Teal I · Sat Oct 31 at Elite FC Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Elite FC Pre | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 5 | 1.00 | LWDLD | +0.35 | +0.00 | 70% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC Indy Teal I · Sun Nov 8 vs Lakota FC Red See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.