CUSC Premier
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU12 (2014-2015) 9v9 · 5 teams · Cincinnati United Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:30 AM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.5 for, 1.9 against · 1.71 expected points)
| Season so far | CUSC Premier | Lakota FC Red |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-0 | 2-0-3 |
| Points per game | 2.33 | 1.20 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 2.4 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W D W | W W L L L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs Elite FC Pre | 7–3 at FC Storm Premier 2 |
| Worst loss | — | 1–3 vs Union FC Indy Teal I |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.91 | +0.08 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.36 | -0.15 |
Common opponents: Union FC Indy Teal I — we 1–0; they 1–3, 2–1. Elite FC Pre — we 3–3, 5–0; they 2–3.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 51% / draw 19% / loss 30%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 10:30 AM at Line Hill.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Lakota FC Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CUSC Premier – Lakota FC Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.50 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.50 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.75 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 63%
- 2nd 31%
- 3rd 5%
- 4th 1%
- 5th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
15 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link CUSC Premier to Lakota FC Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.16 · 4th hardest of 5
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jan 1 TBD no score posted |
FC Storm Premier 2 4th · 1-1-2 · GD -6 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
3–1 | 2.15 | 2.29 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 24 10:30 AM |
Lakota FC Red 3rd · 2-0-3 · GD +1 |
Away Line Hill |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–1 | 1.71 | 2.17 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
Lakota FC Red 3rd · 2-0-3 · GD +1 |
Home Marr Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.01 | 2.14 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM |
FC Storm Premier 2 4th · 1-1-2 · GD -6 |
Home Lebanon Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.42 | 2.18 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
Union FC Indy Teal I 2nd · 3-0-2 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Union FC Indy Soccer Complex · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.24 | 2.07 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | CUSC Premier | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 7 | 2.33 | WDW | -0.36 | -0.16 | 100% | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Oct 24 at Lakota FC Red · Sun Oct 25 vs Lakota FC Red See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Union FC Indy Teal I | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 9 | 1.80 | WLWWL | -0.12 | -0.28 | 100% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Elite FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs CUSC Premier See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Lakota FC Red | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 6 | 1.20 | LLLWW | -0.15 | +0.32 | 90% | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CUSC Premier · Sun Oct 25 at CUSC Premier · Sun Nov 8 at Elite FC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Storm Premier 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 4 | 1.00 | WLLD | +0.01 | +0.45 | 41% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs CUSC Premier · Sat Oct 24 at Union FC Indy Teal I · Sat Oct 31 at Elite FC Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Elite FC Pre | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 5 | 1.00 | LWDLD | +0.35 | +0.00 | 69% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC Storm Premier 2 · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC Indy Teal I · Sun Nov 8 vs Lakota FC Red See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.