LouCity Academy Pre- 2

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU11 (2015-2016) 9v9 · 7 teams · LouCity / Racing Youth Academy (all teams)

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2nd

4-1-0 record · 5 played

2.60 points per game

+17 goal diff · 28–11

WWDWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.0

-1.22 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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LouCity Academy Pre- 2
2nd · 2.60 PPG

Ohio Elite SA Pre
7th · 0.00 PPG

Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility, Field 2A ↗

91%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.1 for, 1.3 against · 2.78 expected points)

Season so far	LouCity Academy Pre- 2	Ohio Elite SA Pre
Position	2nd	7th
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-0	0-0-6
Points per game	2.60	0.00
Goals for / game	5.6	0.8
Goals against / game	2.2	3.5
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	2
Form (recent first)	W W D W W	L L L L L
Biggest win	8–2 at Elite FC Pre- Black	—
Worst loss	—	1–6 at CUSC Premier
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.65	-1.63
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-1.22	+0.38

Already played this season: Sat Sep 5 6–2 at Ohio Elite SA Pre (W)

Common opponents: Elite FC Pre- Black — we 8–2; they 0–3. Lakota FC Red — we 2–2; they 0–1. FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 B15/16 — we 5–4, 7–1; they 1–2.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Ohio Elite SA Pre average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.8); blanked in 2 of 6.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 91% chance; likely score 5–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Ohio Elite SA Pre have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Ohio Elite SA Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LouCity Academy Pre- 2 – Ohio Elite SA Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.67 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.67 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.33 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 2.17 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 5–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

21% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.0 average finish

1st 21%
2nd 65%
3rd 11%
4th 3%
5th
6th
7th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	CUSC Premier	3.00 (+0.40)	1st (2.67)	11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection

How the results connect

23 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link LouCity Academy Pre- 2 to Ohio Elite SA Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

21 favour us

2 favour them

+4.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.73 · 4th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM	Ohio Elite SA Pre 7th · 0-0-6 · GD -16	Home Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility	●○○○○ Favorable	91%	5–1	2.78	2.63	Bank it
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	CUSC Premier 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +30	Home Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility	●●●●● Very tough	24%	2–4	0.84	2.37	Upside
Sun Oct 25 12:30 PM	Union FC Indy Teal II 3rd · 3-2-0 · GD +7	Home Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	3–2	1.87	2.31	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

CUSC Premier

+30

3.00

WWWWW

-1.35

+0.95

100%

1.2

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Elite FC Pre- Black (6th)	6–1
W	Fri Oct 16	vs	Lakota FC Red (4th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 B15/16 (5th)	13–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Elite FC Pre- Black (6th)	7–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (7th)	6–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at LouCity Academy Pre- 2 · Sun Nov 8 at Union FC Indy Teal II · Sun Nov 8 at Union FC Indy Teal II See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	LouCity Academy Pre- 2 (2nd)	4–2	63%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	3–1	67%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	3–1	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LouCity Academy Pre- 2

+17

2.60

WWDWW

-1.22

+0.73

100%

2.0

W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 B15/16 (5th)	7–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 B15/16 (5th)	5–4
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Lakota FC Red (4th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 5	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (7th)	6–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Elite FC Pre- Black (6th)	8–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs CUSC Premier · Sun Oct 25 vs Union FC Indy Teal II See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (7th)	5–1	91%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	CUSC Premier (1st)	2–4	24%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	3–2	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Union FC Indy Teal II

2.20

DWWDW

-1.19

+2.68

100%

3.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (7th)	3–1
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Lakota FC Red (4th)	1–1
W	Fri Oct 2	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 B15/16 (5th)	1–0
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Elite FC Pre- Black (6th)	5–1
D	Fri Aug 21	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 B15/16 (5th)	3–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at LouCity Academy Pre- 2 · Sun Nov 8 vs CUSC Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs CUSC Premier See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	LouCity Academy Pre- 2 (2nd)	2–3	27%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	CUSC Premier (1st)	1–3	18%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	CUSC Premier (1st)	1–3	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lakota FC Red

1.83

DDWLW

-0.04

-1.57

100%

3.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (7th)	1–0
L	Fri Oct 16	at	CUSC Premier (1st)	1–3
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Elite FC Pre- Black (6th)	4–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	LouCity Academy Pre- 2 (2nd)	2–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Elite FC Pre- Black (6th)	7–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Nov 8 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 B15/16 See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (7th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 B15/16 (5th)	3–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 B15/16

-17

1.00

WLLLL

+0.63

+0.65

5.0

L	Fri Oct 2	vs	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	CUSC Premier (1st)	0–13
L	Sun Sep 20	at	LouCity Academy Pre- 2 (2nd)	1–7
L	Sun Sep 20	at	LouCity Academy Pre- 2 (2nd)	4–5
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (7th)	2–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Elite FC Pre- Black (6th)	5–2
D	Fri Aug 21	at	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	3–3

Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Lakota FC Red See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lakota FC Red (4th)	1–3	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Elite FC Pre- Black

-28

0.38

LLWLL

+0.94

—

6.2

Ohio Elite SA Pre

-16

0.00

LLLLL

+0.38

+1.15

6.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lakota FC Red (4th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Elite FC Pre- Black (6th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 B15/16 (5th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	CUSC Premier (1st)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 5	vs	LouCity Academy Pre- 2 (2nd)	2–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 at LouCity Academy Pre- 2 · Sun Nov 1 vs Lakota FC Red See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	LouCity Academy Pre- 2 (2nd)	1–5	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lakota FC Red (4th)	1–2	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.