CUSC Premier
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU11 (2015-2016) 9v9 · 7 teams · Cincinnati United Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility, Field 2B ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.4 for, 3.0 against · 2.02 expected points)
| Season so far | CUSC Premier | LouCity Academy Pre- 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-0 | 4-1-0 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| Goals for / game | 7.0 | 5.6 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | W W D W W |
| Biggest win | 13–0 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 B15/16 | 8–2 at Elite FC Pre- Black |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +3.20 | +1.65 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.35 | -1.22 |
Common opponents: Ohio Elite SA Pre — we 6–1; they 6–2. Elite FC Pre- Black — we 7–2, 6–1; they 8–2. FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 B15/16 — we 13–0; they 5–4, 7–1. Lakota FC Red — we 3–1; they 2–2.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
LouCity Academy Pre- 2 score 5.6/game — well above the league's 2.8.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 63% / draw 13% / loss 24%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the LouCity Academy Pre- 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CUSC Premier – LouCity Academy Pre- 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.67 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.50 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–2 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 79%
- 2nd 19%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
25 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link CUSC Premier to LouCity Academy Pre- 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.95 · 3rd hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
LouCity Academy Pre- 2 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +17 |
Away far trip
Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
4–2 | 2.02 | 2.84 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 03:00 PM |
Union FC Indy Teal II 3rd · 3-2-0 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Union FC Indy Soccer Complex · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
3–1 | 2.16 | 2.74 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 08:30 AM |
Union FC Indy Teal II 3rd · 3-2-0 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Union FC Indy Soccer Complex · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
3–1 | 2.16 | 2.67 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | CUSC Premier | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 5 | +30 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.35 | +0.95 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LouCity Academy Pre- 2 · Sun Nov 8 at Union FC Indy Teal II · Sun Nov 8 at Union FC Indy Teal II See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | LouCity Academy Pre- 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 11 | +17 | 13 | 2.60 | WWDWW | -1.22 | +0.73 | 100% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs CUSC Premier · Sun Oct 25 vs Union FC Indy Teal II See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Union FC Indy Teal II | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 11 | 2.20 | DWWDW | -1.19 | +2.68 | 100% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LouCity Academy Pre- 2 · Sun Nov 8 vs CUSC Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs CUSC Premier See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Lakota FC Red | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 11 | 1.83 | DDWLW | -0.04 | -1.57 | 100% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Nov 8 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 B15/16 See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 B15/16 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 7 | 1.00 | WLLLL | +0.63 | +0.65 | 0% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Lakota FC Red See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Elite FC Pre- Black | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 42 | -28 | 3 | 0.38 | LLWLL | +0.94 | — | 0% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 7 | Ohio Elite SA Pre | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 21 | -16 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.38 | +1.15 | 0% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LouCity Academy Pre- 2 · Sun Nov 1 vs Lakota FC Red See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.