Lakota FC Red
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU11 (2015-2016) 9v9 · 7 teams · Lakota Futbol Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 12:30 PM
Ohio Elite Training Center, Field 3 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.7 for, 1.1 against · 2.30 expected points)
| Season so far | Lakota FC Red | Ohio Elite SA Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-2-1 | 0-0-6 |
| Points per game | 1.83 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.5 | 3.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W D D | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 7–2 vs Elite FC Pre- Black | — |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at CUSC Premier | 1–6 at CUSC Premier |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.65 | -1.63 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.04 | +0.38 |
Already played this season: Sat Oct 17 1–0 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre (W)
Common opponents: Elite FC Pre- Black — we 7–2, 4–1; they 0–3. LouCity Academy Pre- 2 — we 2–2; they 2–6. Union FC Indy Teal II — we 1–1; they 1–3. CUSC Premier — we 1–3; they 1–6.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Ohio Elite SA Pre average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.8); blanked in 2 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 2–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Ohio Elite SA Pre have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 12:30 PM at Ohio Elite Training Center.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Ohio Elite SA Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lakota FC Red – Ohio Elite SA Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.71 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.57 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 9%
- 3rd 75%
- 4th 16%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.13 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CUSC Premier | 3.00 (+1.17) | 1st (2.67) | 13 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | LouCity Academy Pre- 2 | 2.60 (+0.77) | 2nd (2.31) | 10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Union FC Indy Teal II | 2.20 (+0.37) | 4th (1.67) | 7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 3 for their projection |
How the results connect
25 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Lakota FC Red to Ohio Elite SA Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -1.57 · 6th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 12:30 PM |
Ohio Elite SA Pre 7th · 0-0-6 · GD -16 |
Away Ohio Elite Training Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.30 | 1.90 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 04:00 PM |
FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 B15/16 5th · 2-1-4 · GD -17 |
Away far trip
FC Pride Performance Center (Turf) · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
3–1 | 2.21 | 1.94 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | CUSC Premier | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 5 | +30 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.35 | +0.95 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LouCity Academy Pre- 2 · Sun Nov 8 at Union FC Indy Teal II · Sun Nov 8 at Union FC Indy Teal II See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | LouCity Academy Pre- 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 11 | +17 | 13 | 2.60 | WWDWW | -1.22 | +0.73 | 100% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs CUSC Premier · Sun Oct 25 vs Union FC Indy Teal II See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Union FC Indy Teal II | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 11 | 2.20 | DWWDW | -1.19 | +2.68 | 100% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at LouCity Academy Pre- 2 · Sun Nov 8 vs CUSC Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs CUSC Premier See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Lakota FC Red | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 11 | 1.83 | DDWLW | -0.04 | -1.57 | 100% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Nov 8 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 B15/16 See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 B15/16 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 7 | 1.00 | WLLLL | +0.63 | +0.65 | 0% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Lakota FC Red See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Elite FC Pre- Black | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 42 | -28 | 3 | 0.38 | LLWLL | +0.94 | — | 0% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 7 | Ohio Elite SA Pre | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 21 | -16 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.38 | +1.15 | 0% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LouCity Academy Pre- 2 · Sun Nov 1 vs Lakota FC Red See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.