Ohio Premier Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU11 (2015-2016) 9v9 · 9 teams · Ohio Premier (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:15 AM
OP Training Facility, field 4S ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.1 for, 2.8 against · 1.57 expected points)
| Season so far | Ohio Premier Pre | Grasshoppers FC Teal |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-1 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 4.6 | 4.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D W W L W | W W L L W |
| Biggest win | 9–1 at Manta Pre | 9–1 vs GTFC Impact Pre |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue | 0–4 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.67 | +1.59 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.34 | -0.43 |
Common opponents: Manta Pre — we 9–1; they 7–0. Cleveland Force Pre- Blue — we 0–3; they 0–4. Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre — we 4–3; they 2–1. WNY Flash Pre- I — we 8–1; they 7–1. Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black — we 2–2; they 1–3.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 17% / loss 36%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Grasshoppers FC Teal sit 3rd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.A point moves us above Grasshoppers FC Teal on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Grasshoppers FC Teal game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Premier Pre – Grasshoppers FC Teal) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.17 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Win 2.17 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.83 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.67 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 23%
- 3rd 44%
- 4th 31%
- 5th 1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Force Pre- Blue | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (2.98) | 14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black | 2.38 (+0.38) | 2nd (2.38) | 10 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
| 3 | Grasshoppers FC Teal | 2.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.94) | A point next game |
How the results connect
26 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Ohio Premier Pre to Grasshoppers FC Teal through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -1.14 · 5th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:15 AM |
Grasshoppers FC Teal 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +16 |
Home OP Training Facility |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
3–2 | 1.57 | 1.93 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 24 12:15 PM |
Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 6th · 3-0-3 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
Kilbourne Run Sports Park- 4625 Westerville Rd Col |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
4–2 | 2.26 | 1.98 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM |
GTFC Impact Pre 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -37 |
Away far trip
Rossford Soccer Center Dome |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
7–1 | 2.93 | 2.10 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Cleveland Force Pre- Blue | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 7 | +26 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.26 | -2.72 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash Pre- I See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 11 | +23 | 19 | 2.38 | WWWDW | -0.19 | — | 100% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 3 | Grasshoppers FC Teal | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 10 | +16 | 12 | 2.00 | WLLWW | -0.43 | +0.49 | 91% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Ohio Premier Pre | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 10 | 2.00 | WLWWD | +0.34 | -1.14 | 98% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Grasshoppers FC Teal · Sat Oct 24 at Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 · Sat Oct 31 at GTFC Impact Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 12 | 1.50 | LWWWL | -0.32 | — | 7% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 6 | Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 9 | 1.50 | LWWWL | -0.57 | +1.63 | 4% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Grasshoppers FC Teal See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | WNY Flash Pre- I | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 6 | 0.86 | LLLLW | -0.25 | +2.77 | 0% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | GTFC Impact Pre | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 39 | -37 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.53 | +0.32 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Manta Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Ohio Premier Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Cleveland Force Pre- Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Manta Pre | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 47 | -39 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.04 | -4.31 | 0% | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at GTFC Impact Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.22 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.