Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU11 (2015-2016) 9v9 · 9 teams · Kings Hammer Columbus (all teams)

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6th

3-0-3 record · 6 played

1.50 points per game

-6 goal diff · 18–24

LWWWLlast 5

3% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.9

-0.57 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:15 PM

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Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1
6th · 1.50 PPG

Ohio Premier Pre
4th · 2.00 PPG

Kilbourne Run Sports Park- 4625 Westerville Rd Col, Field 4A ↗

17% 12% 71%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–4 (expected goals 2.5 for, 4.5 against · 0.62 expected points)

Season so far	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1	Ohio Premier Pre
Position	6th	4th
Record (W-D-L)	3-0-3	3-1-1
Points per game	1.50	2.00
Goals for / game	3.0	4.6
Goals against / game	4.0	2.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	L W W W L	D W W L W
Biggest win	6–1 at GTFC Impact Pre	9–1 at Manta Pre
Worst loss	2–10 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue	0–3 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.70	+1.67
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.57	+0.34

Common opponents: Cleveland Force Pre- Blue — we 2–10; they 0–3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre — we 1–4; they 4–3. WNY Flash Pre- I — we 4–3; they 8–1. Manta Pre — we 4–2; they 9–1. Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black — we 1–4; they 2–2.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Ohio Premier Pre score 4.6/game — well above the league's 3.2.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 17%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
What a win does
Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre sit 5th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.
A point moves us above Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Ohio Premier Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 – Ohio Premier Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.29 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds
Win 1.71 PPG	4th▲ up 2	5th▲ up 1	5th▲ up 1
Draw 1.43 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds
Loss 1.29 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–4 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

3% top 4

97% below the top 4

5.9 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd <1%
4th 3%
5th 3%
6th 92%
7th 1%
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.88 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue	3.00 (+1.50)	1st (2.98)	15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black	2.38 (+0.88)	2nd (2.38)	11 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Grasshoppers FC Teal	2.00 (+0.50)	4th (1.94)	7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Ohio Premier Pre	2.00 (+0.50)	3rd (2.10)	7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre	1.50 (+0.00)	5th (1.50)	A point next game

How the results connect

26 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 to Ohio Premier Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

26 favour them

-4.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.63 · 2nd hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:15 PM	Ohio Premier Pre 4th · 3-1-1 · GD +13	Home Kilbourne Run Sports Park- 4625 Westerville Rd Col	●●●●● Very tough	17%	2–4	0.62	1.37	Upside
Sun Oct 25 10:30 AM	Grasshoppers FC Teal 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +16	Home Kilbourne Run Sports Park- 4625 Westerville Rd Col	●●●●● Very tough	17%	2–4	0.62	1.28	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Cleveland Force Pre- Blue

+26

3.00

WWWWW

+0.26

-2.72

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Manta Pre (9th)	9–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Ohio Premier Pre (4th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (2nd)	4–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	4–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 (6th)	10–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash Pre- I See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	GTFC Impact Pre (8th)	8–1	99%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	WNY Flash Pre- I (7th)	5–1	93%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black

+23

2.38

WWWDW

-0.19

—

100%

2.2

Grasshoppers FC Teal

+16

2.00

WLLWW

-0.43

+0.49

93%

3.7

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	WNY Flash Pre- I (7th)	7–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	0–4
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (8th)	9–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Manta Pre (9th)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Premier Pre (4th)	2–3	36%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 (6th)	4–2	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Premier Pre

+13

2.00

WLWWD

+0.34

-1.14

98%

3.1

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (2nd)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Pre- I (7th)	8–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	4–3
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	0–3
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Manta Pre (9th)	9–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Grasshoppers FC Teal · Sat Oct 24 at Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 · Sat Oct 31 at GTFC Impact Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	3–2	47%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 (6th)	4–2	71%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	GTFC Impact Pre (8th)	7–1	97%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

+15

1.50

LWWWL

-0.32

—

5.0

Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1

-6

1.50

LWWWL

-0.57

+1.63

5.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–4
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Manta Pre (9th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Pre- I (7th)	4–3
W	Sun Sep 13	at	GTFC Impact Pre (8th)	6–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	1–4
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	2–10

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Grasshoppers FC Teal See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Premier Pre (4th)	2–4	17%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	2–4	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Pre- I

-11

0.86

LLLLW

-0.25

+2.77

7.0

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (8th)	5–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	1–7
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Pre (4th)	1–8
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 (6th)	3–4
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Manta Pre (9th)	5–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	1–5	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

GTFC Impact Pre

-37

0.00

LLLLL

+0.53

+0.32

8.6

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	0–8
L	Sat Oct 10	at	WNY Flash Pre- I (7th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 (6th)	1–6
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	1–9
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (2nd)	0–11

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Manta Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Ohio Premier Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Cleveland Force Pre- Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Manta Pre (9th)	2–3	34%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Ohio Premier Pre (4th)	1–7	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	1–8	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Manta Pre

-39

0.00

LLLLL

+1.04

-4.31

8.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	2–9
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 (6th)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	0–6
L	Sun Sep 20	at	WNY Flash Pre- I (7th)	2–5
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Ohio Premier Pre (4th)	1–9
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–7
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	0–7

Next: Sun Oct 25 at GTFC Impact Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	GTFC Impact Pre (8th)	3–2	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.22 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.