Cleveland Force Pre- Blue

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU11 (2015-2016) 9v9 · 9 teams · Cleveland Force SC (all teams)

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1st

6-0-0 record · 6 played

3.00 points per game

+26 goal diff · 33–7

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.0

+0.26 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 11:30 AM

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Cleveland Force Pre- Blue
1st · 3.00 PPG

GTFC Impact Pre
8th · 0.00 PPG

Rossford Soccer Center Dome, Indoor Turf 9v9 (2) ↗ · turf far trip

99%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 8–1 (expected goals 8.1 for, 1.0 against · 2.97 expected points)

Season so far	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue	GTFC Impact Pre
Position	1st	8th
Record (W-D-L)	6-0-0	0-0-5
Points per game	3.00	0.00
Goals for / game	5.5	0.4
Goals against / game	1.2	7.8
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	0	3
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	L L L L L
Biggest win	10–2 vs Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1	—
Worst loss	—	0–11 at Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.77	-4.31
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.26	+0.53

Common opponents: Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 — we 10–2; they 1–6. Grasshoppers FC Teal — we 4–0; they 1–9. Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black — we 4–2; they 0–11. Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre — we 3–1; they 0–8.

Game plan

They struggle to score
GTFC Impact Pre average 0.4 goals/game (league avg 3.2); blanked in 3 of 5.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
GTFC Impact Pre concede 7.8/game; worst result 0–11 at Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 99% chance; likely score 8–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
GTFC Impact Pre have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 11:30 AM at Rossford Soccer Center Dome.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the GTFC Impact Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Cleveland Force Pre- Blue – GTFC Impact Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.71 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.57 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 8–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

100% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.0 average finish

1st 100%
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

26 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Cleveland Force Pre- Blue to GTFC Impact Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

26 favour us

0 favour them

+11.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -2.72 · 6th hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 1 11:30 AM	GTFC Impact Pre 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -37	Away far trip Rossford Soccer Center Dome · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	99%	8–1	2.97	3.00	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 12:45 PM	WNY Flash Pre- I 7th · 2-0-5 · GD -11	Home Lost Nations Sports Park - West	●○○○○ Favorable	93%	5–1	2.83	2.98	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Cleveland Force Pre- Blue

+26

3.00

WWWWW

+0.26

-2.72

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Manta Pre (9th)	9–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Ohio Premier Pre (4th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (2nd)	4–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	4–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 (6th)	10–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash Pre- I See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	GTFC Impact Pre (8th)	8–1	99%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	WNY Flash Pre- I (7th)	5–1	93%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black

+23

2.38

WWWDW

-0.19

—

100%

2.2

Grasshoppers FC Teal

+16

2.00

WLLWW

-0.43

+0.49

91%

3.8

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	WNY Flash Pre- I (7th)	7–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	0–4
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (8th)	9–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Manta Pre (9th)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Premier Pre (4th)	2–3	36%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 (6th)	4–2	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Premier Pre

+13

2.00

WLWWD

+0.34

-1.14

99%

3.1

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (2nd)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Pre- I (7th)	8–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	4–3
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	0–3
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Manta Pre (9th)	9–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Grasshoppers FC Teal · Sat Oct 24 at Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 · Sat Oct 31 at GTFC Impact Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	3–2	47%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 (6th)	4–2	71%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	GTFC Impact Pre (8th)	7–1	97%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

+15

1.50

LWWWL

-0.32

—

5.0

Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1

-6

1.50

LWWWL

-0.57

+1.63

5.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–4
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Manta Pre (9th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Pre- I (7th)	4–3
W	Sun Sep 13	at	GTFC Impact Pre (8th)	6–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	1–4
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	2–10

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Grasshoppers FC Teal See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Premier Pre (4th)	2–4	17%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	2–4	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Pre- I

-11

0.86

LLLLW

-0.25

+2.77

7.0

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (8th)	5–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	1–7
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Pre (4th)	1–8
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 (6th)	3–4
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Manta Pre (9th)	5–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	1–5	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

GTFC Impact Pre

-37

0.00

LLLLL

+0.53

+0.32

8.7

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	0–8
L	Sat Oct 10	at	WNY Flash Pre- I (7th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 (6th)	1–6
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	1–9
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (2nd)	0–11

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Manta Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Ohio Premier Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Cleveland Force Pre- Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Manta Pre (9th)	2–3	34%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Ohio Premier Pre (4th)	1–7	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	1–8	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Manta Pre

-39

0.00

LLLLL

+1.04

-4.31

8.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (1st)	2–9
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 1 (6th)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	0–6
L	Sun Sep 20	at	WNY Flash Pre- I (7th)	2–5
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Ohio Premier Pre (4th)	1–9
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–7
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	0–7

Next: Sun Oct 25 at GTFC Impact Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	GTFC Impact Pre (8th)	3–2	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.22 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.