Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU10 (2016-2017) 7v7 · 7 teams · Pittsburgh Riverhounds (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM
Montour Junction Sports Complex, Indoor 1 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 4–4 (expected goals 4.9 for, 4.5 against · 1.57 expected points)
| Season so far | Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre | WNY Flash Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-3 | 3-0-2 |
| Points per game | 1.43 | 1.80 |
| Goals for / game | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| Goals against / game | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | D W L L W | W W L L W |
| Biggest win | 8–1 vs GTFC Impact Pre | 7–0 vs GTFC Impact Pre |
| Worst loss | 1–9 at Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black | 2–8 at Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.05 | +0.25 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.02 | -0.36 |
Already played this season: Sat Oct 10 3–5 at WNY Flash Pre (L)
Common opponents: Grasshoppers FC Teal — we 7–6; they 6–10. Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black — we 1–9; they 2–8. GTFC Impact Pre — we 8–1; they 7–0. Pacesetter SC Pre- Red — we 4–0; they 4–0.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 48% / draw 14% / loss 38%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
What a win does
Cleveland Force Pre- Blue sit 4th on 1.60 PPG; we are on 1.43.A point moves us above Cleveland Force Pre- Blue on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the WNY Flash Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre – WNY Flash Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.38 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.63 PPG |
3rd▲ up 2 | 3rd▲ up 2 | 3rd▲ up 2 |
| Draw 1.38 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.25 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–4 draw we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 52%
- 5th 47%
- 6th
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 1.63 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black | 3.00 (+1.57) | 1st (3.00) | 14 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | WNY Flash Pre | 1.80 (+0.37) | 4th (1.51) | 5 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 3 for their projection |
| 3 | Grasshoppers FC Teal | 1.63 (+0.20) | 3rd (1.63) | 4 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 3 for their projection |
| 4 | Cleveland Force Pre- Blue | 1.60 (+0.17) | 2nd (1.86) | A point next game |
How the results connect
29 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre to WNY Flash Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.25 · 2nd hardest of 5
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
WNY Flash Pre 2nd · 3-0-2 · GD +3 |
Home Montour Junction Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
4–4 | 1.57 | 1.45 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 57 | 9 | +48 | 24 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.55 | — | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | WNY Flash Pre | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 9 | 1.80 | WLLWW | -0.36 | +0.73 | 53% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue · Sat Nov 7 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Grasshoppers FC Teal | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 42 | 28 | +14 | 13 | 1.63 | LWWWL | -0.32 | — | 100% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Cleveland Force Pre- Blue | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 8 | 1.60 | LDWWD | +0.54 | -1.64 | 94% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 10 | 1.43 | WLLWD | -0.02 | +0.25 | 53% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Pacesetter SC Pre- Red | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 31 | -18 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLLL | +0.87 | -5.40 | 0% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | GTFC Impact Pre | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 55 | -54 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.74 | -0.23 | 0% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pacesetter SC Pre- Red · Sun Nov 1 vs Cleveland Force Pre- Blue See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (4.03 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.