Cleveland Force Pre- Blue

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU10 (2016-2017) 7v7 · 7 teams · Cleveland Force SC (all teams)

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4th

2-2-1 record · 5 played

1.60 points per game

+8 goal diff · 24–16

LDWWDlast 5

94% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.5

+0.54 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 10:00 AM

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Cleveland Force Pre- Blue
4th · 1.60 PPG

GTFC Impact Pre
7th · 0.00 PPG

Rossford Soccer Center Dome, Indoor Turf 7v7 (2) ↗ · turf far trip

97%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 7–1 (expected goals 7.6 for, 1.5 against · 2.92 expected points)

Season so far	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue	GTFC Impact Pre
Position	4th	7th
Record (W-D-L)	2-2-1	0-0-6
Points per game	1.60	0.00
Goals for / game	4.8	0.2
Goals against / game	3.2	9.2
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	5
Form (recent first)	D W W D L	L L L L L
Biggest win	8–2 vs Pacesetter SC Pre- Red	—
Worst loss	3–4 vs Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black	0–14 at Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.07	-5.40
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.54	+0.74

Common opponents: Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black — we 3–4; they 0–14. Grasshoppers FC Teal — we 2–2; they 0–12, 0–7. Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre — we 8–5, 3–3; they 1–8. Pacesetter SC Pre- Red — we 8–2; they 0–7.

Game plan

They struggle to score
GTFC Impact Pre average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 4.0); blanked in 5 of 6.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
GTFC Impact Pre concede 9.2/game; worst result 0–14 at Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 97% chance; likely score 7–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
GTFC Impact Pre have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Rossford Soccer Center Dome.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Grasshoppers FC Teal sit 3rd on 1.63 PPG; we are on 1.60.
A point moves us above Grasshoppers FC Teal on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the GTFC Impact Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Cleveland Force Pre- Blue – GTFC Impact Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.83 PPG	2nd▲ up 2	2nd▲ up 2	2nd▲ up 2
Win 1.83 PPG	2nd▲ up 2	2nd▲ up 2	2nd▲ up 2
Draw 1.50 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Loss 1.33 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 7–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

94% top 4

6% below the top 4

2.5 average finish

1st
2nd 74%
3rd 13%
4th 8%
5th 6%
6th
7th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.13 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black	3.00 (+1.40)	1st (3.00)	16 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	WNY Flash Pre	1.80 (+0.20)	4th (1.51)	A point next game
3	Grasshoppers FC Teal	1.63 (+0.03)	3rd (1.63)	A point next game

How the results connect

35 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Cleveland Force Pre- Blue to GTFC Impact Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

35 favour us

0 favour them

+11.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.64 · 4th hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM	GTFC Impact Pre 7th · 0-0-6 · GD -54	Away far trip Rossford Soccer Center Dome · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	7–1	2.92	1.82	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM	WNY Flash Pre 2nd · 3-0-2 · GD +3	Home Sportsplex	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	5–3	1.97	1.84	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 04:30 PM	WNY Flash Pre 2nd · 3-0-2 · GD +3	Home Sportsplex	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	5–3	1.97	1.86	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black

+48

3.00

WWWWW

-0.55

—

100%

1.0

WNY Flash Pre

1.80

WLLWW

-0.36

+0.73

51%

4.0

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (7th)	7–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	5–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	6–10
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (1st)	2–8
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Pacesetter SC Pre- Red (6th)	4–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue · Sat Nov 7 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	4–4	38%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (4th)	3–5	26%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (4th)	3–5	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Grasshoppers FC Teal

+14

1.63

LWWWL

-0.32

—

100%

3.1

Cleveland Force Pre- Blue

1.60

LDWWD

+0.54

-1.64

94%

2.5

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	3–3
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pacesetter SC Pre- Red (6th)	8–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	8–5
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	2–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (1st)	3–4

Next: Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	GTFC Impact Pre (7th)	7–1	97%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	WNY Flash Pre (2nd)	5–3	62%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	WNY Flash Pre (2nd)	5–3	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

-1

1.43

WLLWD

-0.02

+0.25

55%

4.4

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (4th)	3–3
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pacesetter SC Pre- Red (6th)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (4th)	5–8
L	Sat Oct 10	at	WNY Flash Pre (2nd)	3–5
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (7th)	8–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (1st)	1–9
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	7–6

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	WNY Flash Pre (2nd)	4–4	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pacesetter SC Pre- Red

-18

0.43

LLLLL

+0.87

-5.40

6.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (4th)	2–8
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (1st)	2–6
W	Sun Sep 13	at	GTFC Impact Pre (7th)	7–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	WNY Flash Pre (2nd)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (7th)	4–1	87%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

GTFC Impact Pre

-54

0.00

LLLLL

+0.74

-0.23

7.0

L	Sat Oct 10	at	WNY Flash Pre (2nd)	0–7
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (5th)	1–8
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Pacesetter SC Pre- Red (6th)	0–7
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Grasshoppers FC Pre- Black (1st)	0–14
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Grasshoppers FC Teal (3rd)	0–12

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pacesetter SC Pre- Red · Sun Nov 1 vs Cleveland Force Pre- Blue See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pacesetter SC Pre- Red (6th)	1–4	6%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (4th)	1–7	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (4.03 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.