YMS Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northeast - South BU12 · 7 teams · Yardley Makefield Soccer (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM
Macclesfield Park, Macclesfield Turf Field ↗ · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.6 against · 1.72 expected points)
| Season so far | YMS Pre | Lancaster FC Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-2 | 1-0-2 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L W | L L W |
| Biggest win | 3–1 at West-Mont United - Pre | 3–1 at PA Rush Pre |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at FC Europa Pre | 0–3 at Keystone Athletic Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.13 | -0.40 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.04 | +0.30 |
Common opponents: West-Mont United - Pre — we 3–1; they 0–2. PA Rush Pre — we 2–3; they 3–1.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Lancaster FC Pre average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 2 of 3.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at FC Europa Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 51% / draw 20% / loss 29%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Lancaster FC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (YMS Pre – Lancaster FC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.80 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.80 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.40 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.20 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 2 | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 4%
- 3rd 24%
- 4th 36%
- 5th 24%
- 6th 12%
- 7th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Europa Pre | 3.00 (+1.50) | 1st (2.30) | 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 2 | Keystone Athletic Pre | 3.00 (+1.50) | 2nd (2.13) | 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 3 | PA Rush Pre | 2.25 (+0.75) | 3rd (1.63) | 21 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
How the results connect
7 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link YMS Pre to Lancaster FC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.13 · 3rd hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM |
Lancaster FC Pre 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -3 |
Home Macclesfield Park · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–1 | 1.72 | 1.54 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM |
Keystone Athletic Pre 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +6 |
Home Macclesfield Park · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.87 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
FC Europa Pre 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +10 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.74 | 1.33 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Lancaster FC Pre 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.43 | 1.34 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
West-Mont United - Pre 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -3 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.69 | 1.38 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Keystone Athletic Pre 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +6 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.63 | 1.31 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
PA Rush Pre 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +3 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
2–2 | 1.34 | 1.31 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Eagle FC Pre 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -12 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–1 | 2.30 | 1.39 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC Europa Pre | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.67 | -0.02 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Nov 7 at PA Rush Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Lancaster FC Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Keystone Athletic Pre | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -1.00 | +0.04 | 99% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Europa Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs West-Mont United - Pre · Sat Nov 14 at YMS Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | PA Rush Pre | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -0.64 | +0.29 | 89% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs FC Europa Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 13 at Lancaster FC Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | YMS Pre | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | -0.04 | +0.13 | 64% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lancaster FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 13 vs FC Europa Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Lancaster FC Pre | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | +0.30 | +0.04 | 30% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at YMS Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Eagle FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Europa Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | West-Mont United - Pre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +0.31 | +0.01 | 19% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eagle FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 20 vs PA Rush Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Eagle FC Pre | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.65 | +0.13 | 0% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West-Mont United - Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Lancaster FC Pre · Sat Mar 20 at Keystone Athletic Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.09 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.