Lancaster FC Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northeast - South BU12 · 7 teams · Lancaster FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM
Macclesfield Park, Macclesfield Turf Field ↗ · turf far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.6 for, 2.2 against · 1.07 expected points)
| Season so far | Lancaster FC Pre | YMS Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-2 | 2-0-2 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W | L W L W |
| Biggest win | 3–1 at PA Rush Pre | 3–1 at West-Mont United - Pre |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at Keystone Athletic Pre | 0–3 at FC Europa Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.40 | -0.13 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.30 | -0.04 |
Common opponents: PA Rush Pre — we 3–1; they 2–3. West-Mont United - Pre — we 0–2; they 3–1.
Game plan
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at Keystone Athletic Pre, 0–2 at West-Mont United - Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 29%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Macclesfield Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
YMS Pre sit 4th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.00.A win moves us above YMS Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the YMS Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lancaster FC Pre – YMS Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.75 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.75 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 9%
- 4th 21%
- 5th 32%
- 6th 35%
- 7th 3%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Europa Pre | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.30) | 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 2 | Keystone Athletic Pre | 3.00 (+2.00) | 2nd (2.13) | 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 3 | PA Rush Pre | 2.25 (+1.25) | 3rd (1.63) | 24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 4 | YMS Pre | 1.50 (+0.50) | 4th (1.39) | Win next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Lancaster FC Pre to YMS Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.04 · 5th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM |
YMS Pre 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Macclesfield Park · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–2 | 1.07 | 1.02 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM |
Eagle FC Pre 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -12 |
Home Foundation Field at Overlook |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.04 | 1.22 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 12:30 PM |
FC Europa Pre 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +10 |
Home Foundation Field at Overlook |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.65 | 1.13 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
PA Rush Pre 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +3 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.15 | 1.13 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
YMS Pre 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.35 | 1.16 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
West-Mont United - Pre 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -3 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
1–1 | 1.47 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Eagle FC Pre 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -12 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.76 | 1.25 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 11:00 AM |
FC Europa Pre 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
The Proving Grounds |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–2 | 0.46 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Keystone Athletic Pre 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.77 | 1.14 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Europa Pre | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.67 | -0.02 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Nov 7 at PA Rush Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Lancaster FC Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Keystone Athletic Pre | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -1.00 | +0.04 | 99% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Europa Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs West-Mont United - Pre · Sat Nov 14 at YMS Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | PA Rush Pre | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -0.64 | +0.29 | 86% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs FC Europa Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 13 at Lancaster FC Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | YMS Pre | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | -0.04 | +0.13 | 62% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lancaster FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 13 vs FC Europa Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Lancaster FC Pre | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | +0.30 | +0.04 | 30% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at YMS Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Eagle FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Europa Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | West-Mont United - Pre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +0.31 | +0.01 | 22% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eagle FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 20 vs PA Rush Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Eagle FC Pre | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.65 | +0.13 | 0% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West-Mont United - Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Lancaster FC Pre · Sat Mar 20 at Keystone Athletic Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.09 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.