FC Europa Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northeast - South BU12 · 7 teams · FC Europa (all teams)

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1st

3-0-0 record · 3 played

3.00 points per game

+10 goal diff · 12–2

WWWlast 3

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.5

-0.67 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM

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FC Europa Pre
1st · 3.00 PPG

Keystone Athletic Pre
2nd · 3.00 PPG

Moravian Academy, Field 2 ↗ far trip

38% 22% 40%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.8 against · 1.36 expected points)

Season so far	FC Europa Pre	Keystone Athletic Pre
Position	1st	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	3-0-0	2-0-0
Points per game	3.00	3.00
Goals for / game	4.0	3.0
Goals against / game	0.7	0.0
Clean sheets	1	2
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W	W W
Biggest win	6–1 vs Eagle FC Pre	3–0 vs Lancaster FC Pre
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.38	+1.02
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.67	-1.00

Common opponents: Eagle FC Pre — we 6–1; they 3–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Keystone Athletic Pre score 3.0/game — well above the league's 2.1.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Keystone Athletic Pre concede only 0.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 38%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Moravian Academy.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Keystone Athletic Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Europa Pre – Keystone Athletic Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.25 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

62% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.5 average finish

1st 62%
2nd 32%
3rd 6%
4th 1%
5th <1%
6th
7th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

3 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link FC Europa Pre to Keystone Athletic Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us

0 favour them

+1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.02 · 7th hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM	Keystone Athletic Pre 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +6	Away far trip Moravian Academy	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.36	2.59	Upside
Sat Nov 7 10:45 AM	PA Rush Pre 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +3	Away Select Soccer	●●○○○ Lean win	58%	2–1	1.92	2.46	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 12:30 PM	Lancaster FC Pre 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -3	Away far trip Foundation Field at Overlook	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.18	2.41	Swing game
Sat Mar 13 TBD	YMS Pre 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -1	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	65%	2–1	2.10	2.37	Swing game
Sun Apr 4 TBD	Eagle FC Pre 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -12	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	85%	4–1	2.65	2.40	Bank it
Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM	Keystone Athletic Pre 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +6	Home The Proving Grounds	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	1–1	1.63	2.32	Swing game
Sat May 1 TBD	West-Mont United - Pre 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -3	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	2–1	2.19	2.30	Swing game
Sat May 8 11:00 AM	Lancaster FC Pre 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -3	Home The Proving Grounds	●○○○○ Favorable	75%	2–1	2.40	2.31	Bank it
Sun May 16 04:30 PM	PA Rush Pre 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +3	Home YSC Sports	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	3–1	2.21	2.30	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC Europa Pre

+10

3.00

WWW

-0.67

-0.02

100%

1.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	West-Mont United - Pre (6th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Eagle FC Pre (7th)	6–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	YMS Pre (4th)	3–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Nov 7 at PA Rush Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Lancaster FC Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	PA Rush Pre (3rd)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lancaster FC Pre (5th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	YMS Pre (4th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Eagle FC Pre (7th)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (2nd)	1–1	47%
·	Sat May 1	at	West-Mont United - Pre (6th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Lancaster FC Pre (5th)	2–1	75%
·	Sun May 16	vs	PA Rush Pre (3rd)	3–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Keystone Athletic Pre

3.00

-1.00

+0.04

99%

1.9

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Eagle FC Pre (7th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lancaster FC Pre (5th)	3–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Europa Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs West-Mont United - Pre · Sat Nov 14 at YMS Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Europa Pre (1st)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	West-Mont United - Pre (6th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	YMS Pre (4th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	PA Rush Pre (3rd)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Eagle FC Pre (7th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	PA Rush Pre (3rd)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Europa Pre (1st)	1–1	31%
·	Sat May 1	vs	YMS Pre (4th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat May 8	at	West-Mont United - Pre (6th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat May 15	at	Lancaster FC Pre (5th)	2–1	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PA Rush Pre

2.25

LWWW

-0.64

+0.29

87%

3.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Eagle FC Pre (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	YMS Pre (4th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	West-Mont United - Pre (6th)	4–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lancaster FC Pre (5th)	1–3

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs FC Europa Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 13 at Lancaster FC Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Europa Pre (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (2nd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Lancaster FC Pre (5th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	West-Mont United - Pre (6th)	2–2	48%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (2nd)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Eagle FC Pre (7th)	4–1	80%
·	Sat May 8	at	YMS Pre (4th)	2–2	43%
·	Sun May 16	at	FC Europa Pre (1st)	1–3	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

YMS Pre

-1

1.50

WLWL

-0.04

+0.13

66%

4.1

L	Sat Oct 3	vs	PA Rush Pre (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	West-Mont United - Pre (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Europa Pre (1st)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Eagle FC Pre (7th)	4–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lancaster FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 13 vs FC Europa Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lancaster FC Pre (5th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (2nd)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Europa Pre (1st)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Lancaster FC Pre (5th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	West-Mont United - Pre (6th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat May 1	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat May 8	vs	PA Rush Pre (3rd)	2–2	39%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Eagle FC Pre (7th)	3–1	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lancaster FC Pre

-3

1.00

WLL

+0.30

+0.04

29%

5.0

L	Sat Oct 3	at	West-Mont United - Pre (6th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (2nd)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	PA Rush Pre (3rd)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at YMS Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Eagle FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Europa Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	YMS Pre (4th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Eagle FC Pre (7th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Europa Pre (1st)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	PA Rush Pre (3rd)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	YMS Pre (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	West-Mont United - Pre (6th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun May 2	at	Eagle FC Pre (7th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC Europa Pre (1st)	1–2	11%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (2nd)	1–2	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

West-Mont United - Pre

-3

0.75

LLWL

+0.31

+0.01

19%

5.3

L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Europa Pre (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Lancaster FC Pre (5th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	YMS Pre (4th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	PA Rush Pre (3rd)	3–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eagle FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 20 vs PA Rush Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Eagle FC Pre (7th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (2nd)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	PA Rush Pre (3rd)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Lancaster FC Pre (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	YMS Pre (4th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC Europa Pre (1st)	1–2	16%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (2nd)	1–2	20%
·	Sun May 9	at	Eagle FC Pre (7th)	2–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Eagle FC Pre

-12

0.00

LLLL

+0.65

+0.13

6.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	PA Rush Pre (3rd)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Europa Pre (1st)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	YMS Pre (4th)	3–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at West-Mont United - Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Lancaster FC Pre · Sat Mar 20 at Keystone Athletic Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	West-Mont United - Pre (6th)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lancaster FC Pre (5th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	FC Europa Pre (1st)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PA Rush Pre (3rd)	1–4	10%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Lancaster FC Pre (5th)	1–2	28%
·	Sun May 9	vs	West-Mont United - Pre (6th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat May 15	at	YMS Pre (4th)	1–3	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.09 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.