West-Mont United - Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northeast - South BU12 · 7 teams · West-Mont United S.A (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM
The Far Post, Outdoor Turf 1B ↗ · turf
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.2 for, 1.7 against · 2.16 expected points)
| Season so far | West-Mont United - Pre | Eagle FC Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-3 | 0-0-4 |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.5 | 4.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L L | L L L L |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs Lancaster FC Pre | — |
| Worst loss | 1–3 vs YMS Pre | 1–6 at FC Europa Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.35 | -1.56 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.31 | +0.65 |
Common opponents: PA Rush Pre — we 3–4; they 1–4. YMS Pre — we 1–3; they 3–4. FC Europa Pre — we 1–3; they 1–6.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Eagle FC Pre concede 4.2/game; worst result 1–6 at FC Europa Pre.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 67% / draw 15% / loss 18%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Confidence is low on their side
Eagle FC Pre have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
-
What a win does
Lancaster FC Pre sit 5th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.75.A point moves us above Lancaster FC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Eagle FC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West-Mont United - Pre – Eagle FC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.20 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.20 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Draw 0.80 PPG |
6th— holds | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Loss 0.60 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 5%
- 4th 14%
- 5th 32%
- 6th 44%
- 7th 5%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Europa Pre | 3.00 (+2.25) | 1st (2.30) | 33 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Keystone Athletic Pre | 3.00 (+2.25) | 2nd (2.13) | 33 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 3 | PA Rush Pre | 2.25 (+1.50) | 3rd (1.63) | 24 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 4 | YMS Pre | 1.50 (+0.75) | 4th (1.39) | 15 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 5 | Lancaster FC Pre | 1.00 (+0.25) | 5th (1.14) | A point next game |
How the results connect
9 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link West-Mont United - Pre to Eagle FC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.01 · 6th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM |
Eagle FC Pre 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -12 |
Home The Far Post · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
3–1 | 2.16 | 1.03 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 01:30 PM |
Keystone Athletic Pre 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Charles Chrin Community Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.56 | 0.95 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
PA Rush Pre 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +3 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–2 | 1.20 | 0.99 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Lancaster FC Pre 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.31 | 1.03 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
YMS Pre 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.12 | 1.04 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
FC Europa Pre 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +10 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.65 | 1.00 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Keystone Athletic Pre 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.78 | 0.98 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Eagle FC Pre 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -12 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.87 | 1.05 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Europa Pre | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.67 | -0.02 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Nov 7 at PA Rush Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Lancaster FC Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Keystone Athletic Pre | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -1.00 | +0.04 | 99% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Europa Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs West-Mont United - Pre · Sat Nov 14 at YMS Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | PA Rush Pre | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -0.64 | +0.29 | 87% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs FC Europa Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 13 at Lancaster FC Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | YMS Pre | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | -0.04 | +0.13 | 66% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lancaster FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 13 vs FC Europa Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Lancaster FC Pre | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | +0.30 | +0.04 | 29% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at YMS Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Eagle FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Europa Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | West-Mont United - Pre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +0.31 | +0.01 | 19% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eagle FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 20 vs PA Rush Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Eagle FC Pre | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.65 | +0.13 | 0% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West-Mont United - Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Lancaster FC Pre · Sat Mar 20 at Keystone Athletic Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.09 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.