Keystone Athletic Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northeast - South BU12 · 7 teams · Keystone Athletic (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.7 against · 1.42 expected points)
| Season so far | Keystone Athletic Pre | FC Europa Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-0 | 3-0-0 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 4.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W | W W W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs Lancaster FC Pre | 6–1 vs Eagle FC Pre |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.02 | +1.38 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.00 | -0.67 |
Common opponents: Eagle FC Pre — we 3–0; they 6–1.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
FC Europa Pre score 4.0/game — well above the league's 2.1.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
FC Europa Pre concede only 0.7/game with 1 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 40%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
FC Europa Pre have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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What a win does
FC Europa Pre sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.A win moves us above FC Europa Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Europa Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Keystone Athletic Pre – FC Europa Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 2.33 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 1 | 1st▲ up 1 | 1st▲ up 1 |
| Draw 2.33 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 32%
- 2nd 51%
- 3rd 12%
- 4th 4%
- 5th 1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Europa Pre | 3.00 (+0.00) | 1st (2.30) | Win next game |
How the results connect
3 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Keystone Athletic Pre to FC Europa Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.04 · 4th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
FC Europa Pre 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +10 |
Home Moravian Academy |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 2.47 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 01:30 PM |
West-Mont United - Pre 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -3 |
Home Charles Chrin Community Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.28 | 2.42 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM |
YMS Pre 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Macclesfield Park · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.94 | 2.33 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 01:30 PM |
PA Rush Pre 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +3 |
Home Charles Chrin Community Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–1 | 2.05 | 2.28 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Eagle FC Pre 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -12 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
3–0 | 2.69 | 2.34 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 11:00 AM |
PA Rush Pre 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Quakertown High School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.77 | 2.27 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM |
FC Europa Pre 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
The Proving Grounds |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.15 | 2.14 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
YMS Pre 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.20 | 2.15 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
West-Mont United - Pre 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.04 | 2.14 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Lancaster FC Pre 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.03 | 2.13 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Europa Pre | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.67 | -0.02 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Nov 7 at PA Rush Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Lancaster FC Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Keystone Athletic Pre | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -1.00 | +0.04 | 99% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Europa Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs West-Mont United - Pre · Sat Nov 14 at YMS Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | PA Rush Pre | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -0.64 | +0.29 | 87% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs FC Europa Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 13 at Lancaster FC Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | YMS Pre | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | -0.04 | +0.13 | 64% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lancaster FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 13 vs FC Europa Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Lancaster FC Pre | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | +0.30 | +0.04 | 28% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at YMS Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Eagle FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Europa Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | West-Mont United - Pre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +0.31 | +0.01 | 20% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eagle FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 20 vs PA Rush Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Eagle FC Pre | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.65 | +0.13 | 0% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West-Mont United - Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Lancaster FC Pre · Sat Mar 20 at Keystone Athletic Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.09 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.