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BVBIA DFW Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU12 · 9 teams · BVBIA DFW (all teams)

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4th
2-0-3 record · 5 played
1.20 points per game
-5 goal diff · 8–13
WLWLLlast 5
59% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.7
+0.70 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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BVBIA DFW Pre
4th · 1.20 PPG
at
Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza
7th · 1.00 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 1B ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.9 for, 2.1 against · 1.28 expected points)

Season so farBVBIA DFW PreDallas Texans Pre- Mendoza
Position4th7th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-31-1-2
Points per game1.201.00
Goals for / game1.61.5
Goals against / game2.62.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L L W L WW L L D
Biggest win2–1 vs Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez2–1 at Dutch FC Pre
Worst loss0–4 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- A Reyes1–3 vs Sting Pre- Brandt
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.40-0.40
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.70-0.60

Common opponents: Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez — we 2–1; they 2–2. Sting Pre- Brandt — we 3–2; they 1–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- A Reyes.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 36%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:00 PM at Fairview Soccer Park .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (BVBIA DFW Pre – Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG		 7th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 4
Win
1.50 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
1.17 PPG		 5th▼ down 1 4th— holds 8th▼ down 4
Loss
1.00 PPG		 7th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
59% top 4
41% below the top 4
4.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 56%
  5. 5th 18%
  6. 6th 14%
  7. 7th 6%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Luna 2.60 (+1.40) 1st (2.37) 15 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black 2.33 (+1.13) 2nd (2.19) 13 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 FC Dallas Youth Pre- A Reyes 2.00 (+0.80) 3rd (2.14) 10 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

14 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link BVBIA DFW Pre to Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us
3 even
2 favour them
+1.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 2–2 3–2 3–1 3–3 1–2 1–3 2–0 3–3 2–3 3–0 1–0 0–4 3–0 2–0 1–1 4–0 2–1 4–0 BVBIA DFW Pre 4th Atlético Dallas You… 8th Sting Pre- Brandt 5th Dallas Cosmos SC Pr… 2nd Atletico Dallas You… 1st FC Dallas Youth Pre… 3rd Dutch FC Pre 6th NTX Celtic FC Pre- … 9th Dallas Texans Pre- … 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 5th 9th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.93 · 9th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:00 PM		 Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza
7th · 1-1-2 · GD -2		 Away
Fairview Soccer Park 		●●●●○ Tough
36%		 1–2 1.28 1.21 Upside
Sun Oct 25
02:00 PM		 NTX Celtic FC Pre- Petreas
9th · 1-0-5 · GD -21		 Home
Fairview Soccer Park 		●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 3–1 2.55 1.41 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
11:30 AM		 Dutch FC Pre
6th · 1-3-2 · GD -1		 Home
Fairview Soccer Park 		●●●●○ Tough
41%		 2–2 1.42 1.41 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Luna 5410 153+12 132.60 DWWWW -0.35 +0.15 100% 1.6
2 Dallas Cosmos SC Pre- Black 6420 133+10 142.33 WDWWW -0.33 +0.48 100% 2.2
3 FC Dallas Youth Pre- A Reyes 4220 81+7 82.00 DWDW +0.43 -0.68 99% 2.2
4 BVBIA DFW Pre 5203 813-5 61.20 WLWLL +0.70 -0.93 59% 4.7
5 Sting Pre- Brandt 6213 1210+2 71.17 LWLDL -0.07 +0.41 21% 5.5
6 Dutch FC Pre 6132 1112-1 61.00 LDWDL -0.15 +0.48 10% 6.2
7 Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza 4112 68-2 41.00 DLLW -0.60 +0.75 7% 6.9
8 Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez 6123 1012-2 50.83 DLDLW -0.15 +0.58 4% 6.7
9 NTX Celtic FC Pre- Petreas 6105 324-21 30.50 WLLLL +0.29 +0.32 0% 8.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.74 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.