DKSC Pre- Arana

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU10 · 10 teams · DKSC (all teams)

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3rd

5-0-1 record · 6 played

2.50 points per game

+29 goal diff · 33–4

WLWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.6

-0.30 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM

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DKSC Pre- Arana
3rd · 2.50 PPG

Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira
9th · 0.50 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 6A ↗

97%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 7–1 (expected goals 7.3 for, 1.3 against · 2.93 expected points)

Season so far	DKSC Pre- Arana	Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira
Position	3rd	9th
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-1	1-0-5
Points per game	2.50	0.50
Goals for / game	5.5	2.0
Goals against / game	0.7	6.7
Clean sheets	4	0
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W L W	L L L W L
Biggest win	16–0 vs Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Luna	4–3 at DKSC Pre- De La Cruz
Worst loss	1–3 vs Sting Pre- Lucero	1–16 vs Sting Pre- Lucero
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.98	-2.80
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.30	+0.76

Common opponents: Sting Pre- Lucero — we 1–3; they 1–16. SOLAR PRE- ROMERO — we 6–0; they 4–6. DKSC Pre- De La Cruz — we 6–0; they 4–3. FC Dallas Youth Pre- A Reyes — we 3–1; they 0–6.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira concede 6.7/game; worst result 1–16 vs Sting Pre- Lucero.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 97% chance; likely score 7–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 08:00 AM at Fairview Soccer Park .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 08:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
What a win does
Sting Pre- Lucero sit 2nd on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.50.
A point moves us above Sting Pre- Lucero on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (DKSC Pre- Arana – Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.57 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 2.57 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Draw 2.29 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 2.14 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 7–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

3% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.6 average finish

1st 3%
2nd 31%
3rd 66%
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy	3.00 (+0.50)	1st (2.86)	9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Sting Pre- Lucero	2.50 (+0.00)	3rd (2.56)	A point next game

How the results connect

23 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link DKSC Pre- Arana to Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

21 favour us

1 even

1 favour them

+7.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.56 · 8th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 08:00 AM	Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira 9th · 1-0-5 · GD -28	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	7–1	2.93	2.56	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 08:00 AM	NTX United FC Pre Guibert 4th · 3-1-2 · GD -3	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	87%	4–1	2.69	2.58	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy

+23

3.00

WWWWW

-0.70

-0.20

100%

1.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Sting Pre- Lucero (2nd)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira (9th)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Rojas (6th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- A Reyes (8th)	5–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Luna (10th)	9–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	DKSC Pre- De La Cruz (7th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NTX United FC Pre Guibert · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- ROMERO See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	NTX United FC Pre Guibert (4th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR PRE- ROMERO (5th)	3–1	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Lucero

+38

2.50

WWWWL

-0.42

-0.14

100%

2.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Rojas (6th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Luna (10th)	13–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	DKSC Pre- Arana (3rd)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	NTX United FC Pre Guibert (4th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira (9th)	16–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- ROMERO · Sat Oct 31 at DKSC Pre- De La Cruz See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SOLAR PRE- ROMERO (5th)	6–1	93%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	DKSC Pre- De La Cruz (7th)	5–1	86%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre- Arana

+29

2.50

WLWWW

-0.30

-1.56

100%

2.6

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- A Reyes (8th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	DKSC Pre- De La Cruz (7th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	SOLAR PRE- ROMERO (5th)	6–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Rojas (6th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Luna (10th)	16–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira · Sat Oct 31 vs NTX United FC Pre Guibert See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira (9th)	7–1	97%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	NTX United FC Pre Guibert (4th)	4–1	87%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NTX United FC Pre Guibert

-3

1.67

LWLWW

+0.02

+2.63

16%

5.3

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira (9th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- A Reyes (8th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	DKSC Pre- De La Cruz (7th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR PRE- ROMERO (5th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Sting Pre- Lucero (2nd)	0–8
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Rojas (6th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy · Sat Oct 31 at DKSC Pre- Arana See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	DKSC Pre- Arana (3rd)	1–4	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- ROMERO

1.50

WLLWL

-0.98

+3.09

11%

5.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Rojas (6th)	0–4
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Luna (10th)	7–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	DKSC Pre- Arana (3rd)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 26	at	NTX United FC Pre Guibert (4th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira (9th)	6–4
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- A Reyes (8th)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- Lucero · Sat Oct 31 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting Pre- Lucero (2nd)	1–6	3%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy (1st)	1–3	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans Pre- Rojas

1.17

LWLLW

+0.55

-0.46

62%

4.8

W	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR PRE- ROMERO (5th)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (2nd)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy (1st)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Luna (10th)	8–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	DKSC Pre- Arana (3rd)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	NTX United FC Pre Guibert (4th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC Pre- De La Cruz · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- A Reyes See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	DKSC Pre- De La Cruz (7th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- A Reyes (8th)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre- De La Cruz

1.17

DLWLW

-0.81

+2.29

6.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Luna (10th)	6–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	DKSC Pre- Arana (3rd)	0–6
W	Sat Oct 3	at	NTX United FC Pre Guibert (4th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira (9th)	3–4
D	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- A Reyes (8th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy (1st)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dallas Texans Pre- Rojas · Sat Oct 31 vs Sting Pre- Lucero See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Rojas (6th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (2nd)	1–5	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- A Reyes

-8

0.67

DLWLL

+0.35

-2.52

7.1

L	Sat Oct 17	at	DKSC Pre- Arana (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	NTX United FC Pre Guibert (4th)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira (9th)	6–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy (1st)	2–5
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	DKSC Pre- De La Cruz (7th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	SOLAR PRE- ROMERO (5th)	0–7

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Luna · Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Rojas See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Luna (10th)	5–1	95%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Rojas (6th)	1–2	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira

-28

0.50

LWLLL

+0.76

-1.37

9.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	NTX United FC Pre Guibert (4th)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy (1st)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- A Reyes (8th)	0–6
W	Sun Sep 27	at	DKSC Pre- De La Cruz (7th)	4–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	SOLAR PRE- ROMERO (5th)	4–6
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (2nd)	1–16

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC Pre- Arana · Sat Oct 31 at Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Luna See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	DKSC Pre- Arana (3rd)	1–7	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Luna (10th)	5–2	81%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atlético Dallas Youth Pre- Luna

-58

0.00

LLLLL

+1.53

-1.76

10.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	DKSC Pre- De La Cruz (7th)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	SOLAR PRE- ROMERO (5th)	1–7
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Sting Pre- Lucero (2nd)	0–13
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Rojas (6th)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy (1st)	0–9
L	Sat Sep 12	at	DKSC Pre- Arana (3rd)	0–16

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- A Reyes · Sat Oct 31 vs Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- A Reyes (8th)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Texas Warriors FC Pre- Perreira (9th)	2–5	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.08 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.