Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Colorado BU12 · 8 teams · Arsenal Colorado (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 10:30 AM
Fort Collins Soccer Complex, FCSC #9 ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 1.3 against · 1.32 expected points)
| Season so far | Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold | Colorado Storm Pre- North |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-0 | 1-1-0 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W D | W D |
| Biggest win | 2–1 at Colorado Rush Pre- White | 2–0 vs Real Colorado Pre- Olympico |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.14 | +0.39 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.43 | -0.01 |
Game plan
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Hard to break down
Colorado Storm Pre- North concede only 0.5/game with 1 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (27%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Colorado Storm Pre- North sit 2nd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.A point moves us above Colorado Storm Pre- North on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Colorado Storm Pre- North game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold – Colorado Storm Pre- North) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.67 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 6th▼ down 3 |
| Win 2.33 PPG |
1st▲ up 2 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.67 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 6th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.33 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 13%
- 2nd 14%
- 3rd 17%
- 4th 19%
- 5th 18%
- 6th 11%
- 7th 7%
- 8th 1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.71 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pride SC Pre- Copa | 2.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.93) | A point next game |
| 2 | Colorado Storm Pre- North | 2.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.77) | A point next game |
Position over the season
3 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.14 · 2nd hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 10:30 AM |
Colorado Storm Pre- North 2nd · 1-1-0 · GD +2 |
Home Fort Collins Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.32 | 1.77 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 10:00 AM |
Real Colorado North National Pre 4th · 1-0-1 · GD +2 |
Away Dry Creek Community Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.17 | 1.62 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 01:30 PM |
Real Colorado Pre- Olympico 8th · 0-0-1 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Highland Heritage Regional Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.61 | 1.62 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Colorado EDGE Pre- United 5th · 0-1-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.67 | 1.63 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Pride SC Pre- Copa 1st · 1-1-0 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.05 | 1.55 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Pride SC Pre- Copa | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | +0.37 | -0.24 | 90% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Rush Pre- White · Sun Nov 8 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- United · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm South Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Colorado Storm Pre- North | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | -0.01 | -0.08 | 82% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado Rush Pre- White · Sun Nov 22 at Colorado Storm South Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | -0.43 | +0.14 | 63% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm Pre- North · Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado North National Pre · Sun Nov 22 at Real Colorado Pre- Olympico See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Real Colorado North National Pre | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | -0.14 | -0.00 | 66% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Colorado EDGE Pre- United · Sun Nov 15 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold · Sat Mar 20 vs Colorado Storm South Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Colorado EDGE Pre- United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +0 | 1 | 1.00 | D | -0.82 | +0.16 | 31% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at Colorado Storm South Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Real Colorado North National Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Pride SC Pre- Copa See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Colorado Storm South Pre | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 1 | 1.00 | D | +0.14 | -0.02 | 49% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- United · Sun Nov 1 at Real Colorado Pre- Olympico · Sun Nov 15 vs Pride SC Pre- Copa See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Colorado Rush Pre- White | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 1 | 0.33 | DLL | +0.13 | +0.12 | 3% | 7.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Pride SC Pre- Copa · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm Pre- North · Sat Mar 20 vs Real Colorado Pre- Olympico See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Real Colorado Pre- Olympico | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +0.39 | +0.01 | 16% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm South Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- United · Sun Nov 22 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Gold See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.68 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.