Real Colorado Pre- National

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Colorado BU12 · 8 teams · Real Colorado (all teams)

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1st

2-0-0 record · 2 played

3.00 points per game

+2 goal diff · 4–2

WWlast 2

80% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.0

-0.75 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 11:30 AM

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Real Colorado Pre- National
1st · 3.00 PPG

Colorado EDGE Pre- Select
5th · 1.50 PPG

Stenger Soccer Complex, Field 16 ↗ far trip

45% 23% 32%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.4 against · 1.59 expected points)

Season so far	Real Colorado Pre- National	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select
Position	1st	5th
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-0	1-0-1
Points per game	3.00	1.50
Goals for / game	2.0	1.5
Goals against / game	1.0	2.0
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W	L W
Biggest win	3–2 at Colorado Rush Pre- Blue	2–0 vs Colorado Rush Pre- Blue
Worst loss	—	1–4 at Colorado Storm Central Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.26	-0.23
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.75	-0.06

Common opponents: Colorado Rush Pre- Blue — we 3–2; they 2–0.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 45% / draw 23% / loss 32%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 11:30 AM at Stenger Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Colorado EDGE Pre- Select game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Real Colorado Pre- National – Colorado EDGE Pre- Select) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.33 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	4th▼ down 3
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.33 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	4th▼ down 3
Loss 2.00 PPG	4th▼ down 3	1st— holds	4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

22% finish 1st

80% top 4

20% below the top 4

3.0 average finish

1st 22%
2nd 20%
3rd 20%
4th 18%
5th 12%
6th 7%
7th 1%
8th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

1 chain · 3 teams

Paths of results that link Real Colorado Pre- National to Colorado EDGE Pre- Select through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

1 favour them

-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

3 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.26 · 1st hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 1 11:30 AM	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select 5th · 1-0-1 · GD -1	Away far trip Stenger Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	1–1	1.59	2.53	Swing game
Sun Nov 15 01:30 PM	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy 4th · 1-1-0 · GD +2	Home Highland Heritage Regional Park	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.40	2.25	Upside
Sun Mar 14 06:00 PM	Real Colorado Pre- Academy 6th · 0-1-0 · GD +0	Away Highland Heritage Regional Park	●●●●○ Tough	37%	1–1	1.37	2.07	Upside
Sat Mar 20 10:30 AM	Colorado Storm Central Pre 2nd · 1-1-0 · GD +3	Home Highland Heritage Regional Park	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.36	1.95	Upside
Sun Mar 21 10:30 AM	Colorado Storm Pre 3rd · 1-1-0 · GD +3	Away far trip Regis University	●●●●○ Tough	28%	1–1	1.08	1.83	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Real Colorado Pre- National

3.00

-0.75

+0.26

80%

3.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	1–0
W	Tue Oct 6	at	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	3–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Colorado EDGE Pre- Select · Sun Nov 15 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Mar 14 at Real Colorado Pre- Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (5th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (6th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Colorado Storm Central Pre (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Colorado Storm Pre (3rd)	1–1	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm Central Pre

2.00

+0.06

-0.13

83%

2.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (5th)	4–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	2–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Real Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Nov 15 vs Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 22 at Colorado Storm Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (6th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Colorado Storm Pre (3rd)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Real Colorado Pre- National (1st)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	2–1	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm Pre

2.00

-0.28

+0.04

81%

2.9

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (6th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	3–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 22 vs Colorado Storm Central Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Colorado Storm Central Pre (2nd)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (5th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Real Colorado Pre- National (1st)	1–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy

2.00

-0.17

-0.02

74%

3.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Colorado Storm Central Pre (2nd)	2–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- National · Sun Nov 22 at Real Colorado Pre- Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Colorado Storm Pre (3rd)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Real Colorado Pre- National (1st)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (6th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (5th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	1–0	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado EDGE Pre- Select

-1

1.50

-0.06

+0.11

28%

5.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Colorado Storm Central Pre (2nd)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	2–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Real Colorado Pre- National · Sun Nov 8 at Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Real Colorado Pre- National (1st)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (6th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Colorado Storm Pre (3rd)	1–1	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Real Colorado Pre- Academy

1.00

+0.50

-0.08

51%

4.3

Sun Oct 18

Colorado Storm Pre (3rd)

1–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm Central Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- Select · Sun Nov 22 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Colorado Storm Central Pre (2nd)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (5th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Real Colorado Pre- National (1st)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	1–0	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pride SC Pre- Predators

-4

0.00

+0.37

+0.00

7.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Real Colorado Pre- National (1st)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Colorado Storm Pre (3rd)	0–3

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 8 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- Select · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm Central Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (5th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Colorado Storm Central Pre (2nd)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (6th)	0–1	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Rush Pre- Blue

-5

0.00

LLL

+0.16

+0.11

7.5

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	0–2
L	Tue Oct 6	vs	Real Colorado Pre- National (1st)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (5th)	0–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm Pre · Sat Mar 20 vs Real Colorado Pre- Academy See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Colorado Storm Pre (3rd)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (6th)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Colorado Storm Central Pre (2nd)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.