Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Colorado BU12 · 8 teams · Arsenal Colorado (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 12:00 PM
Fort Collins Soccer Complex, FCSC #9 ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.3 against · 1.41 expected points)
| Season so far | Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy | Colorado Storm Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-0 | 1-1-0 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W D | D W |
| Biggest win | 2–0 at Colorado Rush Pre- Blue | 3–0 vs Pride SC Pre- Predators |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.40 | +0.50 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.17 | -0.28 |
Game plan
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Hard to break down
Colorado Storm Pre concede only 0.5/game with 1 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 38%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Colorado Storm Pre sit 3rd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.A point moves us above Colorado Storm Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Colorado Storm Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy – Colorado Storm Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.67 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 6th▼ down 2 |
| Win 2.33 PPG |
2nd▲ up 2 | 1st▲ up 3 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.67 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 6th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.33 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 4th— holds | 6th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 19%
- 2nd 20%
- 3rd 18%
- 4th 17%
- 5th 15%
- 6th 8%
- 7th 2%
- 8th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.71 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Colorado Pre- National | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (1.83) | 17 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
| 2 | Colorado Storm Central Pre | 2.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.81) | A point next game |
| 3 | Colorado Storm Pre | 2.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.81) | A point next game |
Position over the season
3 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.02 · 6th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
Colorado Storm Pre 3rd · 1-1-0 · GD +3 |
Home Fort Collins Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.41 | 1.80 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 01:30 PM |
Real Colorado Pre- National 1st · 2-0-0 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Highland Heritage Regional Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.36 | 1.69 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 10:30 AM |
Real Colorado Pre- Academy 6th · 0-1-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Highland Heritage Regional Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.47 | 1.65 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Colorado EDGE Pre- Select 5th · 1-0-1 · GD -1 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.94 | 1.70 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Pride SC Pre- Predators 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
1–0 | 1.99 | 1.74 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Real Colorado Pre- National | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.75 | +0.26 | 80% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Colorado EDGE Pre- Select · Sun Nov 15 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Mar 14 at Real Colorado Pre- Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Colorado Storm Central Pre | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | +0.06 | -0.13 | 83% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Real Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Nov 15 vs Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 22 at Colorado Storm Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Colorado Storm Pre | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 4 | 2.00 | WD | -0.28 | +0.04 | 81% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 22 vs Colorado Storm Central Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | -0.17 | -0.02 | 74% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- National · Sun Nov 22 at Real Colorado Pre- Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Colorado EDGE Pre- Select | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | -0.06 | +0.11 | 28% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Real Colorado Pre- National · Sun Nov 8 at Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Real Colorado Pre- Academy | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 1 | 1.00 | D | +0.50 | -0.08 | 51% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm Central Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- Select · Sun Nov 22 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Pride SC Pre- Predators | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.37 | +0.00 | 3% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 8 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- Select · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm Central Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Colorado Rush Pre- Blue | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.16 | +0.11 | 1% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm Pre · Sat Mar 20 vs Real Colorado Pre- Academy See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.