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Real Colorado Pre- National

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Colorado BU11 · 8 teams · Real Colorado (all teams)

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3rd
2-0-0 record · 2 played
3.00 points per game
+5 goal diff · 10–5
WWlast 2
84% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.4
-1.61 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 10:00 AM

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Real Colorado Pre- National
3rd · 3.00 PPG
at
Colorado EDGE Pre- Select
1st · 3.00 PPG

Stenger Soccer Complex, Field 16 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.2 for, 3.8 against · 0.74 expected points)

Season so farReal Colorado Pre- NationalColorado EDGE Pre- Select
Position3rd1st
Record (W-D-L)2-0-02-0-0
Points per game3.003.00
Goals for / game5.05.0
Goals against / game2.50.5
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W WW W
Biggest win7–4 vs Pride SC Pre- Predators7–0 vs Colorado Rush Pre- Blue
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.66+1.54
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.61-1.14

Common opponents: Colorado Rush Pre- Blue — we 3–1; they 7–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Colorado EDGE Pre- Select score 5.0/game — well above the league's 2.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Colorado EDGE Pre- Select concede only 0.5/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 20%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:00 AM at Stenger Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Colorado Storm Pre sit 2nd on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above Colorado Storm Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Colorado EDGE Pre- Select game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Real Colorado Pre- National – Colorado EDGE Pre- Select) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 2.00 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1
Win
3.00 PPG		 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1
Draw
2.33 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1
Loss
2.00 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

8% finish 1st
84% top 4
16% below the top 4
3.4 average finish
  1. 1st 8%
  2. 2nd 15%
  3. 3rd 24%
  4. 4th 37%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Colorado EDGE Pre- Select 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.29) Win next game
2 Colorado Storm Pre 3.00 (+0.00) 2nd (2.25) Win next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 3 teams

Paths of results that link Real Colorado Pre- National to Colorado EDGE Pre- Select through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 favour them
-5.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 0–7 Real Colorado Pre- … 3rd Colorado Rush Pre- … 8th Colorado EDGE Pre- … 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

3 game days

1st 4th 8th Sep 20 Oct 6 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.55 · 1st hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM		 Colorado EDGE Pre- Select
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +9		 Away far trip
Stenger Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
20%		 2–3 0.74 2.25 Upside
Sun Nov 15
12:00 PM		 Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy
4th · 2-0-0 · GD +5		 Home
Highland Heritage Regional Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 2–2 1.40 2.03 Upside
Sun Mar 14
04:30 PM		 Real Colorado Pre- Academy
5th · 0-0-1 · GD -2		 Away
Highland Heritage Regional Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 2–2 1.76 1.98 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
09:00 AM		 Colorado Storm Central Pre
6th · 0-0-2 · GD -3		 Home
Highland Heritage Regional Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 3–2 2.14 2.01 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
09:00 AM		 Colorado Storm Pre
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +7		 Away far trip
Regis University		 ●●●●● Very tough
23%		 1–3 0.84 1.84 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Colorado EDGE Pre- Select 2200 101+9 63.00 WW -1.14 +0.20 98% 2.0
2 Colorado Storm Pre 2200 70+7 63.00 WW -0.80 +0.13 98% 2.2
3 Real Colorado Pre- National 2200 105+5 63.00 WW -1.61 +0.55 84% 3.4
4 Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy 2200 72+5 63.00 WW -1.25 +0.34 92% 2.9
5 Real Colorado Pre- Academy 1001 02-2 00.00 L +1.18 -0.11 19% 5.4
6 Colorado Storm Central Pre 2002 36-3 00.00 LL +1.23 -0.36 8% 5.9
7 Pride SC Pre- Predators 2002 412-8 00.00 LL +0.90 -0.07 2% 6.6
8 Colorado Rush Pre- Blue 3003 114-13 00.00 LLL +1.00 -0.24 0% 7.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.48 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.