Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Colorado BU11 · 8 teams · Arsenal Colorado (all teams)

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4th

2-0-0 record · 2 played

3.00 points per game

+5 goal diff · 7–2

WWlast 2

92% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.9

-1.25 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 03:00 PM

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Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy
4th · 3.00 PPG

Colorado Storm Pre
2nd · 3.00 PPG

Fort Collins Soccer Complex, FCSC #9 ↗

37% 21% 42%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.9 for, 2.1 against · 1.31 expected points)

Season so far	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy	Colorado Storm Pre
Position	4th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-0	2-0-0
Points per game	3.00	3.00
Goals for / game	3.5	3.5
Goals against / game	1.0	0.0
Clean sheets	1	2
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W	W W
Biggest win	4–0 at Colorado Rush Pre- Blue	5–0 vs Pride SC Pre- Predators
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.86	+1.18
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-1.25	-0.80

Game plan

Respect their attack
Colorado Storm Pre score 3.5/game — well above the league's 2.5.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Colorado Storm Pre concede only 0.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 37%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
What a win does
Real Colorado Pre- National sit 3rd on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.
A win moves us above Real Colorado Pre- National on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Colorado Storm Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy – Colorado Storm Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 2.00 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	2nd▲ up 2	2nd▲ up 2	3rd▲ up 1
Draw 2.33 PPG	4th— holds	3rd▲ up 1	4th— holds
Loss 2.00 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

16% finish 1st

92% top 4

8% below the top 4

2.9 average finish

1st 16%
2nd 24%
3rd 29%
4th 23%
5th 7%
6th 1%
7th <1%
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select	3.00 (+0.00)	1st (2.29)	Win next game
2	Colorado Storm Pre	3.00 (+0.00)	2nd (2.25)	Win next game
3	Real Colorado Pre- National	3.00 (+0.00)	4th (1.84)	Win next game

Position over the season

3 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.34 · 2nd hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM	Colorado Storm Pre 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +7	Home Fort Collins Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	37%	1–2	1.31	2.44	Upside
Sun Nov 15 12:00 PM	Real Colorado Pre- National 3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +5	Away far trip Highland Heritage Regional Park	●●●●○ Tough	42%	2–2	1.43	2.19	Upside
Sun Nov 22 TBD	Real Colorado Pre- Academy 5th · 0-0-1 · GD -2	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	2–1	1.87	2.12	Swing game
Sun Mar 14 TBD	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select 1st · 2-0-0 · GD +9	Home	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.98	Upside
Sat Mar 20 TBD	Pride SC Pre- Predators 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -8	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	72%	4–2	2.29	2.02	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Colorado EDGE Pre- Select

3.00

-1.14

+0.20

98%

2.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Colorado Storm Central Pre (6th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	7–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Real Colorado Pre- National · Sun Nov 8 at Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	3–2	66%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	4–1	82%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (5th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Colorado Storm Pre (2nd)	2–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm Pre

3.00

-0.80

+0.13

98%

2.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	5–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 22 vs Colorado Storm Central Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	2–1	42%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	4–0	89%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Colorado Storm Central Pre (6th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (1st)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	3–1	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Real Colorado Pre- National

3.00

-1.61

+0.55

84%

3.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	7–4
W	Tue Oct 6	at	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	3–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Colorado EDGE Pre- Select · Sun Nov 15 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Mar 14 at Real Colorado Pre- Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (1st)	2–3	20%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (5th)	2–2	53%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Colorado Storm Central Pre (6th)	3–2	67%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Colorado Storm Pre (2nd)	1–3	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy

3.00

-1.25

+0.34

92%

2.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Colorado Storm Central Pre (6th)	3–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- National · Sun Nov 22 at Real Colorado Pre- Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Colorado Storm Pre (2nd)	1–2	37%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	2–2	42%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (5th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	4–2	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Real Colorado Pre- Academy

-2

0.00

+1.18

-0.11

19%

5.4

Sun Oct 18

Colorado Storm Pre (2nd)

0–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm Central Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- Select · Sun Nov 22 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Colorado Storm Central Pre (6th)	2–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	2–2	30%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm Central Pre

-3

0.00

+1.23

-0.36

5.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (1st)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	2–3

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Real Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Nov 15 vs Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 22 at Colorado Storm Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (5th)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	3–2	59%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Colorado Storm Pre (2nd)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	2–3	19%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	2–1	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pride SC Pre- Predators

-8

0.00

+0.90

-0.07

6.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	4–7
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Colorado Storm Pre (2nd)	0–5

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 8 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- Select · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm Central Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	3–2	66%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (1st)	1–4	9%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Colorado Storm Central Pre (6th)	2–3	25%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	2–4	15%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (5th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Rush Pre- Blue

-13

0.00

LLL

+1.00

-0.24

7.6

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	0–4
L	Tue Oct 6	vs	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (1st)	0–7

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm Pre · Sat Mar 20 vs Real Colorado Pre- Academy See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	2–3	20%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Colorado Storm Pre (2nd)	0–4	4%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (5th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Colorado Storm Central Pre (6th)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.48 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.