Colorado EDGE Pre- Select

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Colorado BU11 · 8 teams · Colorado EDGE (all teams)

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1st

2-0-0 record · 2 played

3.00 points per game

+9 goal diff · 10–1

WWlast 2

98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.0

-1.14 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 10:00 AM

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Colorado EDGE Pre- Select
1st · 3.00 PPG

Real Colorado Pre- National
3rd · 3.00 PPG

Stenger Soccer Complex, Field 16 ↗

66% 14% 20%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.8 for, 2.2 against · 2.12 expected points)

Season so far	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select	Real Colorado Pre- National
Position	1st	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-0	2-0-0
Points per game	3.00	3.00
Goals for / game	5.0	5.0
Goals against / game	0.5	2.5
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W	W W
Biggest win	7–0 vs Colorado Rush Pre- Blue	7–4 vs Pride SC Pre- Predators
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.54	+0.66
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-1.14	-1.61

Common opponents: Colorado Rush Pre- Blue — we 7–0; they 3–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Real Colorado Pre- National score 5.0/game — well above the league's 2.5.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Swing game — small margins
Win 66% / draw 14% / loss 20%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Real Colorado Pre- National game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Colorado EDGE Pre- Select – Real Colorado Pre- National) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.33 PPG	3rd▼ down 2	2nd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 2
Loss 2.00 PPG	4th▼ down 3	3rd▼ down 2	4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–2 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

42% finish 1st

98% top 4

2% below the top 4

2.0 average finish

1st 42%
2nd 29%
3rd 18%
4th 9%
5th 2%
6th <1%
7th
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

1 chain · 3 teams

Paths of results that link Colorado EDGE Pre- Select to Real Colorado Pre- National through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

0 favour them

+5.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

3 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.20 · 3rd hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM	Real Colorado Pre- National 3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +5	Home Stenger Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	3–2	2.12	2.71	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 02:00 PM	Pride SC Pre- Predators 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -8	Away far trip El Pomar Olin Field · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	4–1	2.55	2.67	Bank it
Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM	Real Colorado Pre- Academy 5th · 0-0-1 · GD -2	Away far trip Highland Heritage Regional Park	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.17	2.57	Swing game
Sun Mar 14 TBD	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy 4th · 2-0-0 · GD +5	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	2–2	1.57	2.40	Swing game
Sat Mar 20 09:00 AM	Colorado Storm Pre 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +7	Home Long Lake Regional Park · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–1	1.61	2.29	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Colorado EDGE Pre- Select

3.00

-1.14

+0.20

98%

2.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Colorado Storm Central Pre (6th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	7–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Real Colorado Pre- National · Sun Nov 8 at Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	3–2	66%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	4–1	82%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (5th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Colorado Storm Pre (2nd)	2–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm Pre

3.00

-0.80

+0.13

98%

2.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	5–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 22 vs Colorado Storm Central Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	2–1	42%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	4–0	89%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Colorado Storm Central Pre (6th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (1st)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	3–1	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Real Colorado Pre- National

3.00

-1.61

+0.55

84%

3.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	7–4
W	Tue Oct 6	at	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	3–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Colorado EDGE Pre- Select · Sun Nov 15 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Mar 14 at Real Colorado Pre- Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (1st)	2–3	20%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (5th)	2–2	53%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Colorado Storm Central Pre (6th)	3–2	67%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Colorado Storm Pre (2nd)	1–3	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy

3.00

-1.25

+0.34

92%

2.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Colorado Storm Central Pre (6th)	3–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- National · Sun Nov 22 at Real Colorado Pre- Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Colorado Storm Pre (2nd)	1–2	37%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	2–2	42%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (5th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	4–2	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Real Colorado Pre- Academy

-2

0.00

+1.18

-0.11

19%

5.4

Sun Oct 18

Colorado Storm Pre (2nd)

0–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Storm Central Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- Select · Sun Nov 22 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Colorado Storm Central Pre (6th)	2–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	2–2	30%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm Central Pre

-3

0.00

+1.23

-0.36

5.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (1st)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	2–3

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Real Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Nov 15 vs Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 22 at Colorado Storm Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (5th)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	3–2	59%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Colorado Storm Pre (2nd)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	2–3	19%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	2–1	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pride SC Pre- Predators

-8

0.00

+0.90

-0.07

6.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	4–7
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Colorado Storm Pre (2nd)	0–5

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 8 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- Select · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm Central Pre See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (8th)	3–2	66%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (1st)	1–4	9%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Colorado Storm Central Pre (6th)	2–3	25%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	2–4	15%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (5th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Rush Pre- Blue

-13

0.00

LLL

+1.00

-0.24

7.6

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (4th)	0–4
L	Tue Oct 6	vs	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (1st)	0–7

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 15 at Colorado Storm Pre · Sat Mar 20 vs Real Colorado Pre- Academy See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Pride SC Pre- Predators (7th)	2–3	20%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Colorado Storm Pre (2nd)	0–4	4%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Real Colorado Pre- Academy (5th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Colorado Storm Central Pre (6th)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.48 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.