Virginia Valor FC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Virginia GU18/19 · 7 teams · Virginia Valor FC (all teams)

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7th

0-1-4 record · 5 played

0.20 points per game

-20 goal diff · 3–23

LLLDLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.0

+0.34 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 09:00 AM

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Virginia Valor FC
7th · 0.20 PPG

BRYC Academy
4th · 1.50 PPG

Robinson High School, Upper Turf ↗ · turf far trip

4% 90%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–4 (expected goals 1.0 for, 4.4 against · 0.17 expected points)

Season so far	Virginia Valor FC	BRYC Academy
Position	7th	4th
Record (W-D-L)	0-1-4	2-0-2
Points per game	0.20	1.50
Goals for / game	0.6	2.8
Goals against / game	4.6	1.8
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	3	1
Form (recent first)	L D L L L	W L W L
Biggest win	—	6–1 at Stafford Revolution
Worst loss	0–12 at Richmond United Blue	0–3 at Beach FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-2.34	+0.72
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.34	+0.28

Common opponents: VA Reign FC — we 0–3; they 4–1. Richmond United Blue — we 0–12; they 1–2. Stafford Revolution — we 2–4; they 6–1. Beach FC — we 1–1; they 0–3.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 vs VA Reign FC, 0–12 at Richmond United Blue, 0–3 at Arlington Soccer Association.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 4%; a draw (6%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Robinson High School.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
What a win does
Stafford Revolution sit 6th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.20.
A point moves us above Stafford Revolution on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the BRYC Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Virginia Valor FC – BRYC Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.17 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds
Win 0.67 PPG	6th▲ up 1	6th▲ up 1	6th▲ up 1
Draw 0.33 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds
Loss 0.17 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–4 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

7.0 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th 4%
7th 96%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 0.67 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Richmond United Blue	2.50 (+2.30)	1st (2.50)	14 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Beach FC	2.50 (+2.30)	2nd (2.28)	14 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Arlington Soccer Association	2.25 (+2.05)	3rd (1.87)	13 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	BRYC Academy	1.50 (+1.30)	4th (1.75)	8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	VA Reign FC	1.20 (+1.00)	5th (1.13)	7 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6	Stafford Revolution	0.50 (+0.30)	6th (0.50)	A point next game

How the results connect

17 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Virginia Valor FC to BRYC Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us

1 even

14 favour them

-5.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.72 · 3rd hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM	BRYC Academy 4th · 2-0-2 · GD +4	Away far trip Robinson High School · turf	●●●●● Very tough	4%	0–4	0.17	0.19	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Richmond United Blue

+23

2.50

LWWWW

-0.35

—

100%

1.3

Beach FC

2.50

WWWD

-0.31

-0.05

100%

2.0

D	Sun Oct 4	at	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Stafford Revolution (6th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Richmond United Blue (1st)	7–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	BRYC Academy (4th)	3–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at VA Reign FC · Sun Nov 1 at Arlington Soccer Association See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	VA Reign FC (5th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	2–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arlington Soccer Association

2.25

WLWW

-0.58

+0.92

98%

3.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Stafford Revolution (6th)	4–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Richmond United Blue (1st)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	VA Reign FC (5th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at BRYC Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach FC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	BRYC Academy (4th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Beach FC (2nd)	1–2	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BRYC Academy

1.50

LWLW

+0.28

-1.02

98%

3.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Stafford Revolution (6th)	6–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Richmond United Blue (1st)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	VA Reign FC (5th)	4–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Beach FC (2nd)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Nov 1 vs Virginia Valor FC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	4–0	90%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VA Reign FC

-3

1.20

WWLLL

+0.02

+1.12

5.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Richmond United Blue (1st)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 27	at	BRYC Academy (4th)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Stafford Revolution (6th)	3–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Beach FC See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Beach FC (2nd)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stafford Revolution

-16

0.50

LLWLL

+0.29

—

6.0

Virginia Valor FC

-20

0.20

LLLDL

+0.34

+0.72

7.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Arlington Soccer Association (3rd)	0–3
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Beach FC (2nd)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Stafford Revolution (6th)	2–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Richmond United Blue (1st)	0–12
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	VA Reign FC (5th)	0–3

Next: Sun Nov 1 at BRYC Academy See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	BRYC Academy (4th)	0–4	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.30 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.