VA Reign FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Virginia GU18/19 · 7 teams · Virginia Reign (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM
warhill sports complex, Turf 4 ↗ · turf
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.4 for, 2.5 against · 0.78 expected points)
| Season so far | VA Reign FC | Beach FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-3 | 3-1-0 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / game | 1.4 | 3.5 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L W W | D W W W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs Stafford Revolution | 7–2 at Richmond United Blue |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at Richmond United Blue | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.41 | +1.12 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.02 | -0.31 |
Common opponents: Stafford Revolution — we 3–0; they 3–2. Virginia Valor FC — we 3–0; they 1–1. BRYC Academy — we 1–4; they 3–0. Richmond United Blue — we 0–5; they 7–2.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Beach FC score 3.5/game — well above the league's 2.3.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs Arlington Soccer Association, 0–5 at Richmond United Blue.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 20%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
BRYC Academy sit 4th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.20.A win moves us above BRYC Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Beach FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (VA Reign FC – Beach FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.17 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th 3%
- 5th 97%
- 6th
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richmond United Blue | 2.50 (+1.30) | 1st (2.50) | 9 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Beach FC | 2.50 (+1.30) | 2nd (2.28) | 9 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Arlington Soccer Association | 2.25 (+1.05) | 3rd (1.87) | 8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | BRYC Academy | 1.50 (+0.30) | 4th (1.75) | Win next game |
How the results connect
17 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link VA Reign FC to Beach FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +1.12 · 1st hardest of 5
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
Beach FC 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +9 |
Home warhill sports complex · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.78 | 1.13 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richmond United Blue | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 8 | +23 | 15 | 2.50 | LWWWW | -0.35 | — | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 2 | Beach FC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 10 | 2.50 | WWWD | -0.31 | -0.05 | 100% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at VA Reign FC · Sun Nov 1 at Arlington Soccer Association See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Arlington Soccer Association | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | -0.58 | +0.92 | 98% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at BRYC Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach FC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | BRYC Academy | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 6 | 1.50 | LWLW | +0.28 | -1.02 | 99% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Nov 1 vs Virginia Valor FC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | VA Reign FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 | 1.20 | WWLLL | +0.02 | +1.12 | 3% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Beach FC See all 1 future matchup ▸ |
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| 6 | Stafford Revolution | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 25 | -16 | 3 | 0.50 | LLWLL | +0.29 | — | 0% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 7 | Virginia Valor FC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 23 | -20 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLDL | +0.34 | +0.72 | 0% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at BRYC Academy See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.30 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.