Challenge STXCL I

ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU13 · 12 teams · Challenge SC (all teams)

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12th

0-1-4 record · 5 played

0.20 points per game

-20 goal diff · 3–23

LLDLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.2

+0.84 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 08:00 AM

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Challenge STXCL I
12th · 0.20 PPG

AHFC NW STXCL
5th · 1.40 PPG

Dyess Park, Field 10 ↗

10% 15% 75%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.9 for, 2.6 against · 0.46 expected points)

Season so far	Challenge STXCL I	AHFC NW STXCL
Position	12th	5th
Record (W-D-L)	0-1-4	2-1-2
Points per game	0.20	1.40
Goals for / game	0.6	1.2
Goals against / game	4.6	1.2
Clean sheets	0	3
Held scoreless	2	2
Form (recent first)	L L D L L	W L W D L
Biggest win	—	4–0 vs Imperial SC STXCL
Worst loss	0–13 at AHFC STXCL	1–4 at Challenge STXCL II
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-2.10	+0.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.84	+0.01

Common opponents: Challenge STXCL II — we 1–3; they 1–4. Dynamos STXCL — we 1–3; they 1–0.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–13 at AHFC STXCL, 0–3 at Houstonians FC STXCL.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 10%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 08:00 AM at Dyess Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 08:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
What a win does
Houstonians FC STXCL sit 11th on 0.60 PPG; we are on 0.20.
A point moves us above Houstonians FC STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the AHFC NW STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Challenge STXCL I – AHFC NW STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.17 PPG	12th— holds	12th— holds	12th— holds
Win 0.67 PPG	11th▲ up 1	9th▲ up 3	12th— holds
Draw 0.33 PPG	12th— holds	12th— holds	12th— holds
Loss 0.17 PPG	12th— holds	12th— holds	12th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

11.2 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th <1%
5th
6th
7th <1%
8th 1%
9th 8%
10th 13%
11th 29%
12th 49%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 1.73 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Challenge STXCL II	3.00 (+2.80)	2nd (2.38)	32 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	AHFC STXCL	2.67 (+2.47)	1st (2.62)	29 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Dynamos STXCL	2.17 (+1.97)	3rd (1.97)	23 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I	1.80 (+1.60)	4th (1.87)	19 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	AHFC NW STXCL	1.40 (+1.20)	6th (1.45)	15 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
6	Challenge Aggieland STXCL	1.25 (+1.05)	5th (1.53)	13 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
7	SG1 STXCL	1.17 (+0.97)	8th (1.25)	12 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
8	AHFC EAST STXCL	1.00 (+0.80)	7th (1.45)	10 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
9	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II	0.80 (+0.60)	10th (0.72)	8 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection
10	Imperial SC STXCL	0.67 (+0.47)	9th (0.82)	7 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection
11	Houstonians FC STXCL	0.60 (+0.40)	11th (0.57)	A point next game

How the results connect

11 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Challenge STXCL I to AHFC NW STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us

1 even

7 favour them

-2.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.40 · 9th hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 08:00 AM	AHFC NW STXCL 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +0	Away Dyess Park	●●●●● Very tough	10%	0–2	0.46	0.24	Upside
Sat Oct 31 08:00 AM	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II 9th · 1-1-3 · GD -23	Home Dyess Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	2–2	1.62	0.44	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM	AHFC EAST STXCL 8th · 1-1-2 · GD -5	Home Dyess Park	●●●●● Very tough	17%	1–2	0.68	0.47	Upside
Mon Nov 9 07:00 PM	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +7	Home Burroughs Park	●●●●● Very tough	6%	1–3	0.28	0.45	Upside
Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM	Challenge Aggieland STXCL 6th · 1-2-1 · GD +1	Away Zube Park	●●●●● Very tough	8%	0–2	0.39	0.44	Upside
Sat Nov 21 10:00 AM	Imperial SC STXCL 10th · 1-1-4 · GD -5	Away Zube Park	●●●●● Very tough	14%	1–3	0.58	0.45	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Challenge STXCL II

+15

3.00

WWWWW

-1.44

+0.94

98%

2.1

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (5th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	SG1 STXCL (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Challenge STXCL I (12th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (9th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I · Sun Nov 1 vs Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs AHFC STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (6th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	AHFC STXCL (2nd)	2–3	21%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Imperial SC STXCL (10th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (8th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Dynamos STXCL (3rd)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC STXCL

+46

2.67

WWDWW

-1.12

+0.42

100%

1.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (9th)	14–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (8th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	12–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	SG1 STXCL (7th)	6–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Challenge STXCL I (12th)	13–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Dynamos STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (6th)	4–1	87%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Imperial SC STXCL (10th)	6–1	95%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Dynamos STXCL (3rd)	3–1	74%
·	Tue Nov 3	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (5th)	4–1	91%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Challenge STXCL II (1st)	3–2	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dynamos STXCL

+10

2.17

DWWWL

-0.58

+0.39

89%

3.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	AHFC NW STXCL (5th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Challenge STXCL I (12th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (10th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	SG1 STXCL (7th)	3–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (8th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I · Sat Oct 31 vs AHFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	AHFC STXCL (2nd)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (9th)	4–1	88%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	4–1	92%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Challenge STXCL II (1st)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I

1.80

WLWWL

+0.34

-0.41

74%

3.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	AHFC STXCL (2nd)	1–4
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (10th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (9th)	8–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (8th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (6th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dynamos STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs SG1 STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Challenge STXCL II See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dynamos STXCL (3rd)	2–2	40%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	SG1 STXCL (7th)	3–1	70%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Challenge STXCL II (1st)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	AHFC NW STXCL (5th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	5–1	92%
·	Mon Nov 9	at	Challenge STXCL I (12th)	3–1	85%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC NW STXCL

1.40

LDWLW

+0.01

+0.02

6.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Dynamos STXCL (3rd)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Challenge STXCL II (1st)	1–4
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (10th)	4–0
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (6th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (9th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs Challenge STXCL I · Sat Oct 31 at SG1 STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Challenge STXCL I (12th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SG1 STXCL (7th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	1–1	30%
·	Tue Nov 3	at	AHFC STXCL (2nd)	1–4	3%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (8th)	1–1	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge Aggieland STXCL

1.25

LDDW

+0.35

-0.31

16%

5.8

W	Sat Oct 17	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (8th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (5th)	0–0
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Dynamos STXCL (3rd)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Challenge STXCL II See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	AHFC STXCL (2nd)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	3–0	80%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Challenge STXCL II (1st)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (9th)	3–0	81%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Imperial SC STXCL (10th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Challenge STXCL I (12th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	SG1 STXCL (7th)	1–1	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SG1 STXCL

-5

1.17

LDLLW

+0.22

-0.34

7.3

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	5–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Challenge STXCL II (1st)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Dynamos STXCL (3rd)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Challenge STXCL I (12th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC STXCL (2nd)	1–6
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Imperial SC STXCL (10th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II · Sun Oct 25 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I · Sat Oct 31 vs AHFC NW STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (9th)	3–1	69%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (8th)	2–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (6th)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC EAST STXCL

-5

1.00

LWDL

+1.63

-0.95

12%

6.3

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (6th)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	AHFC STXCL (2nd)	3–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Dynamos STXCL (3rd)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Imperial SC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at Challenge STXCL I See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (10th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Challenge STXCL I (12th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (9th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	SG1 STXCL (7th)	1–2	37%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Challenge STXCL II (1st)	1–3	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II

-23

0.80

WDLLL

+1.38

-0.68

10.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	AHFC STXCL (2nd)	1–14
L	Sat Sep 26	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	0–8
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Challenge STXCL II (1st)	0–4
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (10th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	AHFC NW STXCL (5th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SG1 STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Challenge STXCL I · Sun Nov 1 vs Dynamos STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SG1 STXCL (7th)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Challenge STXCL I (12th)	2–2	33%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Dynamos STXCL (3rd)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (6th)	0–3	7%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (8th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	2–3	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Imperial SC STXCL

-5

0.67

DWLLL

-0.53

+0.77

9.4

L	Sat Oct 17	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	1–5
L	Sun Oct 4	at	AHFC NW STXCL (5th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Dynamos STXCL (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	7–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (9th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	SG1 STXCL (7th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs AHFC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs Challenge Aggieland STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (8th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	AHFC STXCL (2nd)	1–6	2%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (6th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Challenge STXCL II (1st)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Challenge STXCL I (12th)	3–1	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC STXCL

-21

0.60

LWLLL

+0.53

-0.12

10.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	SG1 STXCL (7th)	2–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Imperial SC STXCL (10th)	1–7
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC STXCL (2nd)	0–12
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Challenge STXCL I (12th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Challenge STXCL II (1st)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC NW STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at AHFC EAST STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	AHFC NW STXCL (5th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (6th)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (8th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Dynamos STXCL (3rd)	1–4	3%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	1–5	3%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (9th)	3–2	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge STXCL I

-20

0.20

LLDLL

+0.84

-0.40

11.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Dynamos STXCL (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Challenge STXCL II (1st)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 19	at	SG1 STXCL (7th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (11th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC STXCL (2nd)	0–13

Next: Sun Oct 25 at AHFC NW STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC EAST STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	AHFC NW STXCL (5th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II (9th)	2–2	48%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (8th)	1–2	17%
·	Mon Nov 9	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I (4th)	1–3	6%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Challenge Aggieland STXCL (6th)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Imperial SC STXCL (10th)	1–3	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.31 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.