AHFC EAST STXCL
ECNL Regional League Girls · STXCL GU13 · 12 teams · Albion Hurricanes FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 02:00 PM
Lindsay/Lyons Park, Field 27 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.3 for, 1.8 against · 2.69 expected points)
| Season so far | AHFC EAST STXCL | Houstonians FC STXCL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 11th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-3 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals against / game | 3.2 | 6.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L D W L | L L L L W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I | 3–0 vs Challenge STXCL I |
| Worst loss | 0–6 at Dynamos STXCL | 1–14 at AHFC NW STXCL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.43 | -3.54 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.13 | +0.70 |
Common opponents: AHFC STXCL — we 3–3; they 0–12. Imperial SC STXCL — we 4–5; they 1–7.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Houstonians FC STXCL average 1.2 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 2 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Houstonians FC STXCL concede 6.8/game; worst result 1–14 at AHFC NW STXCL.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–6 at Dynamos STXCL, 0–2 vs Challenge Aggieland STXCL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 87% chance; likely score 5–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Houstonians FC STXCL have lost 4 straight (form: WLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
Imperial SC STXCL sit 8th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.80.A point moves us above Imperial SC STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Houstonians FC STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AHFC EAST STXCL – Houstonians FC STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.17 PPG |
8th▲ up 1 | 8th▲ up 1 | 9th— holds |
| Win 1.17 PPG |
8th▲ up 1 | 8th▲ up 1 | 9th— holds |
| Draw 0.83 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 11th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.67 PPG |
10th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–1 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 1%
- 5th 4%
- 6th 13%
- 7th 32%
- 8th 32%
- 9th 14%
- 10th 5%
- 11th <1%
- 12th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Challenge STXCL II | 3.00 (+2.20) | 2nd (2.37) | 29 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | AHFC STXCL | 2.67 (+1.87) | 1st (2.58) | 26 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I | 2.00 (+1.20) | 3rd (1.99) | 18 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 4 | Dynamos STXCL | 1.86 (+1.06) | 4th (1.83) | 17 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 5 | AHFC NW STXCL | 1.67 (+0.87) | 5th (1.74) | 15 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 6 | SG1 STXCL | 1.43 (+0.63) | 7th (1.29) | 12 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 7 | Challenge Aggieland STXCL | 1.25 (+0.45) | 6th (1.54) | 10 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 8 | Imperial SC STXCL | 1.00 (+0.20) | 9th (1.02) | A point next game |
How the results connect
13 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link AHFC EAST STXCL to Houstonians FC STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.95 · 11th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM |
Houstonians FC STXCL 11th · 1-0-5 · GD -34 |
Home Lindsay/Lyons Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
5–1 | 2.69 | 1.11 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM |
Challenge STXCL I 12th · 0-1-4 · GD -20 |
Away Dyess Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.18 | 1.27 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 04:00 PM |
AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II 10th · 1-1-4 · GD -25 |
Home Dyess Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
4–1 | 2.50 | 1.42 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM |
SG1 STXCL 6th · 3-1-3 · GD -3 |
Away Zube Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.22 | 1.40 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 02:00 PM |
AHFC NW STXCL 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +13 |
Home Zube Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–3 | 0.71 | 1.33 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 08:00 AM |
Challenge STXCL II 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +15 |
Away Zube Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.39 | 1.24 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Challenge STXCL II | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.33 | +0.93 | 97% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I · Sun Nov 1 vs Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs AHFC STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | AHFC STXCL | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 52 | 6 | +46 | 16 | 2.67 | WWDWW | -1.27 | +0.68 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Dynamos STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 12 | 2.00 | LWWLW | +0.44 | -0.64 | 81% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs SG1 STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Challenge STXCL II · Sun Nov 1 at AHFC NW STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Dynamos STXCL | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 13 | 1.86 | WWWLL | -0.10 | -0.02 | 59% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs AHFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II · Sat Nov 7 vs Houstonians FC STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | AHFC NW STXCL | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 10 | 1.67 | DWLWW | -0.63 | +0.50 | 47% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Challenge STXCL I · Sat Oct 31 at SG1 STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SG1 STXCL | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 | 1.43 | DLLWW | -0.42 | +0.55 | 2% | 7.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL I · Sat Oct 31 vs AHFC NW STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs AHFC EAST STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Challenge Aggieland STXCL | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 | 1.25 | LDDW | +0.63 | -0.44 | 13% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Challenge STXCL II See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Imperial SC STXCL | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 7 | 1.00 | WLLLW | -0.46 | +1.01 | 0% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs AHFC STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs Challenge STXCL II See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | AHFC EAST STXCL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 4 | 0.80 | LWDLL | +1.13 | -0.95 | 1% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at Challenge STXCL I · Sun Nov 8 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 30 | -25 | 4 | 0.67 | DLLLL | +1.29 | -1.02 | 0% | 10.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Challenge STXCL I · Sun Nov 1 vs Dynamos STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at Challenge Aggieland STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Houstonians FC STXCL | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 41 | -34 | 3 | 0.50 | WLLLL | +0.70 | -0.16 | 0% | 11.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Challenge Aggieland STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at Dynamos STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Challenge STXCL I | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 23 | -20 | 1 | 0.20 | LLDLL | +0.58 | -0.13 | 0% | 11.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at AHFC NW STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL II · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC EAST STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.