PSA Monmouth
ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU14 · 6 teams · Princeton SA (all teams)
Next game — Sat Mar 20, TBD
Venue TBD
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.3 for, 2.1 against · 1.99 expected points)
| Season so far | PSA Monmouth | PDA SOUTH WHITE |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-3 | 1-1-2 |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals against / game | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L | D L |
| Biggest win | 8–0 vs Lancaster FC | — |
| Worst loss | 2–5 vs PA Rush | 0–2 vs Match Fit Surf Blue |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.12 | -0.86 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 61% / draw 16% / loss 23%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
What a win does
PDA SOUTH WHITE sit 4th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.80.A point moves us above PDA SOUTH WHITE on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the PDA SOUTH WHITE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PSA Monmouth – PDA SOUTH WHITE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Mar 15 – Sun Mar 21); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.17 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Win 1.17 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.83 PPG |
5th— holds | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Loss 0.67 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th 63%
- 5th 32%
- 6th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WNY Flash Binghamton | 2.60 (+1.80) | 1st (2.44) | 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | NLSA Surf | 2.50 (+1.70) | 2nd (2.32) | 34 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Match Fit Surf White | 2.00 (+1.20) | 3rd (1.73) | 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 4 | PDA SOUTH WHITE | 1.00 (+0.20) | 5th (0.94) | A point next game |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.29 · 3rd hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
PDA SOUTH WHITE 4th · 1-1-2 · GD -6 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
3–2 | 1.99 | 1.00 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
WNY Flash Binghamton 1st · 4-1-0 · GD +18 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–4 | 0.27 | 0.89 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 10:45 AM |
PDA SOUTH WHITE 4th · 1-1-2 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
Westampton Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–2 | 1.65 | 0.99 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
NLSA Surf 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +12 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.37 | 0.92 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Match Fit Surf White 3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.15 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
WNY Flash Binghamton 1st · 4-1-0 · GD +18 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.44 | 0.90 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
FC Copa Academy 6th · 0-0-6 · GD -20 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.47 | 1.03 | Bank it |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Match Fit Surf White 3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.87 | 1.02 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
FC Copa Academy 6th · 0-0-6 · GD -20 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
3–0 | 2.64 | 1.13 | Bank it |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
NLSA Surf 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +12 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.55 | 1.09 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WNY Flash Binghamton | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 13 | 2.60 | WDW | +0.00 | -0.18 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Copa Academy · Sat Mar 20 vs NLSA Surf · Sun Mar 21 vs PSA Monmouth See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | NLSA Surf | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 1 | +12 | 10 | 2.50 | WW | +0.00 | -0.07 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Match Fit Surf White · Sat Dec 5 vs Delaware FC · Sat Mar 20 at WNY Flash Binghamton See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Match Fit Surf White | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 8 | 2.00 | DW | +0.00 | +0.14 | 99% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at NLSA Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs West-Mont United · Sun Apr 4 at FC Copa Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | PDA SOUTH WHITE | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 4 | 1.00 | LD | +0.00 | +0.40 | 33% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC Europa · Sat Mar 20 at PSA Monmouth · Sun Mar 21 at NLSA Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | PSA Monmouth | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 4 | 0.80 | LLW | +0.00 | +0.29 | 68% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 20 vs PDA SOUTH WHITE · Sun Mar 21 at WNY Flash Binghamton · Sat Apr 17 at PDA SOUTH WHITE See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Copa Academy | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 21 | -20 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.00 | +0.71 | 0% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at WNY Flash Binghamton · Sun Apr 4 vs Match Fit Surf White · Sun Apr 11 at NLSA Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.32 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.