Match Fit Surf White
ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU14 · 6 teams · Match Fit Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 11:15 AM
Mercer County Community College, Stadium Turf ↗ · turf
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.0 for, 2.3 against · 0.64 expected points)
| Season so far | Match Fit Surf White | NLSA Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-2-0 | 3-1-0 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / game | 2.3 | 3.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W D | W W |
| Biggest win | 3–1 vs Match Fit Surf Blue | 6–0 vs Lancaster FC |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.57 | +1.71 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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Respect their attack
NLSA Surf score 3.2/game — well above the league's 2.0.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
NLSA Surf concede only 0.2/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 15%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:15 AM at Mercer County Community College.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the NLSA Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Match Fit Surf White – NLSA Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.60 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.20 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.80 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 1.60 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 6%
- 3rd 91%
- 4th 2%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WNY Flash Binghamton | 2.50 (+0.50) | 1st (2.50) | 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 2 | NLSA Surf | 2.50 (+0.50) | 2nd (2.37) | 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
The path
run-in difficulty -0.10 · 4th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 11:15 AM |
NLSA Surf 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +12 |
Away Mercer County Community College · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–2 | 0.64 | 1.73 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 10:30 AM |
West-Mont United |
Home Monmouth Regional High School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.88 | 1.75 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
FC Copa Academy 6th · 0-0-5 · GD -18 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–0 | 2.63 | 1.88 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 01:45 PM |
PDA SOUTH WHITE 4th · 1-1-2 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
Westampton Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–1 | 2.05 | 1.90 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
NLSA Surf 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +12 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.85 | 1.78 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
WNY Flash Binghamton 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +15 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
0–2 | 0.65 | 1.67 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
PSA Monmouth 5th · 0-1-3 · GD -9 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–1 | 2.25 | 1.72 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
PDA SOUTH WHITE 4th · 1-1-2 · GD -6 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–1 | 2.31 | 1.77 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
WNY Flash Binghamton 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +15 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
0–2 | 0.48 | 1.67 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
FC Copa Academy 6th · 0-0-5 · GD -18 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
3–0 | 2.76 | 1.75 | Bank it |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
PSA Monmouth 5th · 0-1-3 · GD -9 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.47 | 1.80 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WNY Flash Binghamton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 0 | +15 | 10 | 2.50 | WD | +0.00 | -0.38 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Match Fit Surf Blue · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Copa Academy · Sat Mar 20 vs NLSA Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | NLSA Surf | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 1 | +12 | 10 | 2.50 | WW | +0.00 | -0.31 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Match Fit Surf White · Sat Dec 5 vs Delaware FC · Sat Mar 20 at WNY Flash Binghamton See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Match Fit Surf White | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 8 | 2.00 | DW | +0.00 | -0.10 | 100% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at NLSA Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs West-Mont United · Sun Apr 4 at FC Copa Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | PDA SOUTH WHITE | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 4 | 1.00 | LD | +0.00 | +0.16 | 84% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC Europa · Sat Mar 20 at PSA Monmouth · Sun Mar 21 at NLSA Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | PSA Monmouth | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 1 | 0.25 | LL | +0.00 | +0.24 | 16% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lancaster FC · Sat Mar 20 vs PDA SOUTH WHITE · Sun Mar 21 at WNY Flash Binghamton See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Copa Academy | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 19 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.00 | +0.46 | 1% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at WNY Flash Binghamton · Sun Apr 4 vs Match Fit Surf White · Sun Apr 11 at NLSA Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.00 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.