NLSA Surf
ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU14 · 6 teams · NLSA Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 11:15 AM
Mercer County Community College, Stadium Turf ↗ · turf
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.3 for, 1.0 against · 2.17 expected points)
| Season so far | NLSA Surf | Match Fit Surf White |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-0 | 2-2-0 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W | W D |
| Biggest win | 6–0 vs Lancaster FC | 3–1 vs Match Fit Surf Blue |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.71 | +0.57 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 66% / draw 19% / loss 15%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
What a win does
WNY Flash Binghamton sit 1st on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.50.A point moves us above WNY Flash Binghamton on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Match Fit Surf White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NLSA Surf – Match Fit Surf White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.60 PPG |
1st▲ up 1 | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.60 PPG |
1st▲ up 1 | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.20 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 33%
- 2nd 62%
- 3rd 5%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.87 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WNY Flash Binghamton | 2.50 (+0.00) | 1st (2.50) | A point next game |
The path
run-in difficulty -0.31 · 5th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 11:15 AM |
Match Fit Surf White 3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +4 |
Home Mercer County Community College · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.17 | 2.43 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 5 10:00 AM |
Delaware FC |
Home Mercer County Community College · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
2–0 | 2.46 | 2.44 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
WNY Flash Binghamton 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +15 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–1 | 1.03 | 2.24 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
PDA SOUTH WHITE 4th · 1-1-2 · GD -6 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
3–0 | 2.74 | 2.30 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
FC Copa Academy 6th · 0-0-5 · GD -18 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
4–0 | 2.92 | 2.37 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Match Fit Surf White 3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.94 | 2.33 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
PSA Monmouth 5th · 0-1-3 · GD -9 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–0 | 2.81 | 2.37 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
FC Copa Academy 6th · 0-0-5 · GD -18 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
4–0 | 2.87 | 2.41 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 10:45 AM |
PDA SOUTH WHITE 4th · 1-1-2 · GD -6 |
Away Westampton Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–1 | 2.60 | 2.42 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
WNY Flash Binghamton 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +15 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 2.34 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
PSA Monmouth 5th · 0-1-3 · GD -9 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
3–0 | 2.70 | 2.37 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WNY Flash Binghamton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 0 | +15 | 10 | 2.50 | WD | +0.00 | -0.38 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Match Fit Surf Blue · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Copa Academy · Sat Mar 20 vs NLSA Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | NLSA Surf | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 1 | +12 | 10 | 2.50 | WW | +0.00 | -0.31 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Match Fit Surf White · Sat Dec 5 vs Delaware FC · Sat Mar 20 at WNY Flash Binghamton See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Match Fit Surf White | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 8 | 2.00 | DW | +0.00 | -0.10 | 100% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at NLSA Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs West-Mont United · Sun Apr 4 at FC Copa Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | PDA SOUTH WHITE | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 4 | 1.00 | LD | +0.00 | +0.16 | 84% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC Europa · Sat Mar 20 at PSA Monmouth · Sun Mar 21 at NLSA Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | PSA Monmouth | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 1 | 0.25 | LL | +0.00 | +0.24 | 16% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lancaster FC · Sat Mar 20 vs PDA SOUTH WHITE · Sun Mar 21 at WNY Flash Binghamton See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | FC Copa Academy | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 19 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.00 | +0.46 | 1% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at WNY Flash Binghamton · Sun Apr 4 vs Match Fit Surf White · Sun Apr 11 at NLSA Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.00 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.