WNY Flash Binghamton
ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU14 · 6 teams · WNY Flash Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 02:00 PM
Susquehanna Valley High School, Multipurpose Field ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 5.0 for, 0.5 against · 2.93 expected points)
| Season so far | WNY Flash Binghamton | FC Copa Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-1 | 0-0-6 |
| Points per game | 2.17 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 3.5 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W D W | L L L |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs West-Mont United | — |
| Worst loss | — | 1–5 vs Lancaster FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.89 | -2.22 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
FC Copa Academy average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 2 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
FC Copa Academy concede 3.5/game; worst result 1–5 vs Lancaster FC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs FC Europa.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 97% chance; likely score 4–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
FC Copa Academy have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
Match Fit Surf White sit 2nd on 2.20 PPG; we are on 2.17.A point moves us above Match Fit Surf White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Copa Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (WNY Flash Binghamton – FC Copa Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.29 PPG |
1st▲ up 2 | 1st▲ up 2 | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.29 PPG |
1st▲ up 2 | 1st▲ up 2 | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 1st▲ up 2 | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 1.86 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 45%
- 2nd 40%
- 3rd 16%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.69 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NLSA Surf | 2.20 (+0.03) | 2nd (2.20) | A point next game |
| 2 | Match Fit Surf White | 2.20 (+0.03) | 3rd (1.95) | A point next game |
The path
run-in difficulty -0.19 · 6th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM |
FC Copa Academy 6th · 0-0-6 · GD -20 |
Home Susquehanna Valley High School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
4–0 | 2.93 | 2.28 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
NLSA Surf 1st · 3-2-0 · GD +12 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.50 | 2.18 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
PSA Monmouth 4th · 1-1-3 · GD -1 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
4–1 | 2.56 | 2.22 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
FC Copa Academy 6th · 0-0-6 · GD -20 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
4–0 | 2.87 | 2.29 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Match Fit Surf White 2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +7 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.67 | 2.23 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
PDA SOUTH WHITE 5th · 1-1-3 · GD -8 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
4–1 | 2.76 | 2.27 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
PSA Monmouth 4th · 1-1-3 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.34 | 2.28 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Match Fit Surf White 2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.95 | 2.26 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
NLSA Surf 1st · 3-2-0 · GD +12 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.23 | 2.19 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 02:15 PM |
PDA SOUTH WHITE 5th · 1-1-3 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Westampton Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–1 | 2.61 | 2.21 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | NLSA Surf | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 11 | 2.20 | WW | +0.00 | -0.11 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Match Fit Surf White · Sat Dec 5 vs Delaware FC · Sat Mar 20 at WNY Flash Binghamton See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Match Fit Surf White | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 11 | 2.20 | DW | +0.00 | +0.01 | 100% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at NLSA Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs West-Mont United · Sun Apr 4 at FC Copa Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | WNY Flash Binghamton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 13 | 2.17 | WDW | +0.00 | -0.19 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Copa Academy · Sat Mar 20 vs NLSA Surf · Sun Mar 21 vs PSA Monmouth See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | PSA Monmouth | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 4 | 0.80 | LLW | +0.00 | +0.21 | 80% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 20 vs PDA SOUTH WHITE · Sun Mar 21 at WNY Flash Binghamton · Sat Apr 17 at PDA SOUTH WHITE See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | PDA SOUTH WHITE | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 | 0.80 | LD | +0.00 | +0.35 | 20% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC Europa · Sat Mar 20 at PSA Monmouth · Sun Mar 21 at NLSA Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Copa Academy | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 21 | -20 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.00 | +0.63 | 0% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at WNY Flash Binghamton · Sun Apr 4 vs Match Fit Surf White · Sun Apr 11 at NLSA Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.