La Roca FC North
ECNL Regional League Girls · Mountain GU16 · 19 teams · La Roca FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 14, 11:45 AM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.5 against · 1.51 expected points)
| Season so far | La Roca FC North | Boise Thorns |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 15th | 12th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Boise Thorns average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 1.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 42% / draw 24% / loss 34%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Idaho Rush sit 14th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Idaho Rush on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Boise Thorns game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (La Roca FC North – Boise Thorns) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
10th▲ up 5 | 12th▲ up 3 | 12th▲ up 3 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 14 | 1st▲ up 14 | 3rd▲ up 12 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
10th▲ up 5 | 12th▲ up 3 | 12th▲ up 3 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
19th▼ down 4 | 19th▼ down 4 | 19th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 4%
- 3rd 5%
- 4th 6%
- 5th 6%
- 6th 5%
- 7th 6%
- 8th 6%
- 9th 7%
- 10th 7%
- 11th 5%
- 12th 6%
- 13th 6%
- 14th 6%
- 15th 5%
- 16th 5%
- 17th 7%
- 18th 6%
- 19th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado EDGE | 2.27 (+2.27) | 1st (2.21) | A point next game |
| 2 | Arsenal Colorado | 2.00 (+2.00) | 2nd (1.89) | A point next game |
| 3 | Arizona Soccer Club | 1.75 (+1.75) | 3rd (1.64) | A point next game |
| 4 | Colorado Storm South | 1.58 (+1.58) | 4th (1.58) | A point next game |
| 5 | Pride SC | 1.44 (+1.44) | 5th (1.52) | A point next game |
| 6 | Colorado Storm North | 1.18 (+1.18) | 15th (1.32) | A point next game |
| 7 | Real Colorado Olympico | 1.15 (+1.15) | 16th (1.23) | A point next game |
| 8 | Colorado Rush | 1.09 (+1.09) | 17th (1.12) | A point next game |
| 9 | CCV STARS | 1.00 (+1.00) | 18th (1.11) | A point next game |
| 10 | Colorado Storm Central | 0.10 (+0.10) | 19th (0.20) | Already ahead |
| 11 | Avalanche | 0.00 (+0.00) | 10th (1.38) | Already ahead |
| 12 | Boise Thorns | 0.00 (+0.00) | 8th (1.39) | Already ahead |
| 13 | El Paso Locomotive FC G10/11 | 0.00 (+0.00) | 12th (1.37) | Already ahead |
| 14 | Idaho Rush | 0.00 (+0.00) | 9th (1.39) | Already ahead |
Position over the season
16 game days
Not enough game days yet to draw a line.
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.01 · 12th hardest of 19
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 14 11:45 AM |
Boise Thorns 12th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home La Roca Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.51 | 1.51 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 11:45 AM |
Idaho Rush 14th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home La Roca Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.51 | 1.51 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 09:00 AM |
Real Colorado Olympico 7th · 3-6-4 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Highland Heritage Regional Park · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.33 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Fri Jan 22 04:45 PM |
Colorado Storm South 4th · 6-1-5 · GD -1 |
Home Lakeside Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
1–1 | 1.50 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 23 11:45 AM |
Pride SC 5th · 3-4-2 · GD +1 |
Home La Roca Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.43 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 21 TBD |
Colorado Rush 8th · 3-3-5 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.41 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 12:30 PM |
Utah Surf 19th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home La Roca Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.51 | 1.46 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 02:00 PM |
NUU Avalanche 18th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home La Roca FC Utah County Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.51 | 1.46 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM |
El Paso Locomotive FC G10/11 13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home La Roca FC Utah County Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.51 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 11:00 AM |
NM Rapids SC 17th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home La Roca FC Utah County Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.51 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 09:00 AM |
Avalanche 11th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Regional Athletic Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.51 | 1.48 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 03:30 PM |
Avalanche 11th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away St. Joseph Catholic High School · grass |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Utah Surf 19th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Epic Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
NUU Avalanche 18th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Idaho Rush 14th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 11:00 AM |
Boise Thorns 12th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Boise Timbers|Thorns - Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 09:00 AM |
La Roca FC South 16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
La Roca FC Utah County Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.40 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Colorado EDGE | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 32 | 11 | +21 | 25 | 2.27 | WWDWD | -0.25 | -0.02 | 99% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Colorado Storm North · Sat Oct 31 at Real Colorado Olympico · Sun Nov 1 at Colorado Rush See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Arsenal Colorado | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 12 | +10 | 22 | 2.00 | WLDWW | -0.15 | +0.01 | 82% | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Pride SC · Sun Oct 25 at Colorado Rush · Sun Nov 1 at Pride SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Arizona Soccer Club | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 | 1.75 | WDWL | -0.06 | -0.06 | 39% | 6.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CCV STARS · Sat Nov 7 vs CCV STARS · Sat Mar 13 at Idaho Rush See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Colorado Storm South | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 19 | 1.58 | WDLLW | +0.18 | -0.32 | 23% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Real Colorado Olympico · Sat Oct 31 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Nov 7 at Colorado Storm Central See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Pride SC | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 13 | 1.44 | DLWWD | +0.29 | -0.28 | 17% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arsenal Colorado · Sun Oct 25 at Colorado Storm North · Sat Oct 31 vs Colorado Storm Central See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Colorado Storm North | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 13 | 1.18 | LDDDL | -0.15 | +0.14 | 3% | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Colorado EDGE · Sun Oct 25 vs Pride SC · Sat Nov 7 at Colorado Rush See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Real Colorado Olympico | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 15 | 1.15 | DDWDW | +0.04 | -0.11 | 0% | 12.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Colorado Storm South · Sat Oct 31 vs Colorado EDGE · Sun Nov 8 vs Colorado Storm Central See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Colorado Rush | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 12 | 1.09 | LLLLW | -0.16 | +0.24 | 0% | 14.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Arsenal Colorado · Sat Oct 31 at Colorado Storm South · Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado EDGE See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | CCV STARS | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | 1.00 | LWDL | -0.06 | +0.05 | 3% | 14.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Arizona Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at Arizona Soccer Club · Sat Mar 13 at Boise Thorns See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Colorado Storm Central | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 31 | -29 | 1 | 0.10 | LLLLL | +0.41 | +0.02 | 0% | 19.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Pride SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Colorado Storm South · Sun Nov 8 at Real Colorado Olympico See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Avalanche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.02 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Arsenal Colorado · Sun Nov 8 vs Colorado EDGE · Sat Nov 14 vs Idaho Rush See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Boise Thorns | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 at La Roca FC North · Sun Nov 15 at Avalanche · Sat Jan 23 at Colorado EDGE See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | El Paso Locomotive FC G10/11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Arsenal Colorado · Sun Nov 22 vs Colorado EDGE · Sat Dec 12 at Colorado Storm North See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Idaho Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 at Avalanche · Sun Nov 15 at La Roca FC North · Sat Jan 23 at Arsenal Colorado See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | La Roca FC North | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Boise Thorns · Sun Nov 15 vs Idaho Rush · Sat Nov 21 at Real Colorado Olympico See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | La Roca FC South | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Surf · Sun Dec 6 vs Avalanche · Tue Dec 8 at Utah Surf See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | NM Rapids SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Colorado EDGE · Sun Nov 22 vs Arsenal Colorado · Sat Dec 12 at Colorado Storm Central See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | NUU Avalanche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Colorado EDGE · Sun Nov 8 vs Arsenal Colorado · Sat Nov 21 at Colorado Storm Central See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Utah Surf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 7 at La Roca FC South · Sun Nov 22 at Real Colorado Olympico · Tue Dec 8 vs La Roca FC South See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.