TableChase Clubs

El Paso Locomotive FC G10/11

ECNL Regional League Girls · Mountain GU16 · 19 teams · El Paso Locomotive FC (all teams)

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13th
0-0-0 record · 0 played
0.00 points per game
+0 goal diff · 0–0
last 0
17% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.5
+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 21, 11:00 AM

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El Paso Locomotive FC G10/11
13th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Arsenal Colorado
2nd · 2.00 PPG

University Field, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.7 against · 1.09 expected points)

Season so farEl Paso Locomotive FC G10/11Arsenal Colorado
Position13th2nd
Record (W-D-L)0-0-07-1-3
Points per game0.002.00
Goals for / game0.02.0
Goals against / game0.01.1
Clean sheets04
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)—W W D L W
Biggest win—5–2 vs Real Colorado Olympico
Worst loss—1–2 at Colorado Storm South
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.00+0.64
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.00-0.15

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 28%; a draw (24%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Boise Thorns sit 12th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above Boise Thorns on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Arsenal Colorado game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (El Paso Locomotive FC G10/11 – Arsenal Colorado) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.00 PPG
9th▲ up 4 11th▲ up 2 14th▼ down 1
Win
3.00 PPG
1st▲ up 12 1st▲ up 12 4th▲ up 9
Draw
1.00 PPG
9th▲ up 4 13th— holds 14th▼ down 1
Loss
0.00 PPG
19th▼ down 6 19th▼ down 6 19th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
17% top 4
83% below the top 4
10.5 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 4%
  3. 3rd 6%
  4. 4th 5%
  5. 5th 6%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 5%
  8. 8th 5%
  9. 9th 4%
  10. 10th 6%
  11. 11th 7%
  12. 12th 6%
  13. 13th 5%
  14. 14th 6%
  15. 15th 5%
  16. 16th 6%
  17. 17th 6%
  18. 18th 11%
  19. 19th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Colorado EDGE 2.27 (+2.27) 1st (2.21) A point next game
2 Arsenal Colorado 2.00 (+2.00) 2nd (1.89) A point next game
3 Arizona Soccer Club 1.75 (+1.75) 3rd (1.64) A point next game
4 Colorado Storm South 1.58 (+1.58) 4th (1.58) A point next game
5 Pride SC 1.44 (+1.44) 5th (1.52) A point next game
6 Colorado Storm North 1.18 (+1.18) 15th (1.32) A point next game
7 Real Colorado Olympico 1.15 (+1.15) 16th (1.23) A point next game
8 Colorado Rush 1.09 (+1.09) 17th (1.12) A point next game
9 CCV STARS 1.00 (+1.00) 18th (1.11) A point next game
10 Colorado Storm Central 0.10 (+0.10) 19th (0.20) Already ahead
11 Avalanche 0.00 (+0.00) 10th (1.38) Already ahead
12 Boise Thorns 0.00 (+0.00) 8th (1.39) Already ahead

Position over the season

16 game days

Not enough game days yet to draw a line.

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 7th hardest of 19

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM
Arsenal Colorado
2nd · 7-1-3 · GD +10
Home
University Field
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.09 1.09 Upside
Sun Nov 22
11:00 AM
Colorado EDGE
1st · 7-4-0 · GD +21
Home
Chapin High School
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.75 0.92 Upside
Sat Dec 12
11:00 AM
Colorado Storm North
6th · 3-4-4 · GD +4
Away far trip
Stargate Charter School
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.12 0.99 Upside
Sun Dec 13
01:30 PM
Colorado Storm Central
10th · 0-1-9 · GD -29
Away far trip
Centennial Stadium Field Complex · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.50 1.36 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
11:15 AM
NM Rapids SC
17th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
University Field
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.51 1.39 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
11:00 AM
La Roca FC South
16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
University Field
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.51 1.41 Swing game
Sat Mar 27
09:00 AM
NM Rapids SC
17th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away far trip
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.25 1.39 Upside
Sat Apr 3
01:00 PM
Arizona Soccer Club
3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +2
Home
Chapin High School
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.31 1.38 Upside
Sun Apr 4
11:15 AM
CCV STARS
9th · 1-1-2 · GD -2
Home
University Field
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
1–1 1.71 1.42 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
09:00 AM
La Roca FC North
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away far trip
La Roca FC Utah County Complex
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.25 1.40 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD
Utah Surf
19th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.25 1.39 Upside
Sat Apr 24
11:00 AM
Arizona Soccer Club
3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +2
Away far trip
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.08 1.36 Upside
Sun Apr 25
01:00 PM
CCV STARS
9th · 1-1-2 · GD -2
Away far trip
West Valley Events Complex
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.45 1.37 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Colorado EDGE 11740 3211+21 252.27 WWDWD -0.25 -0.02 99% 1.3
2 Arsenal Colorado 11713 2212+10 222.00 WLDWW -0.15 +0.01 83% 3.1
3 Arizona Soccer Club 4211 64+2 71.75 WDWL -0.06 -0.06 40% 6.5
4 Colorado Storm South 12615 1617-1 191.58 WDLLW +0.18 -0.32 21% 7.0
5 Pride SC 9342 1716+1 131.44 DLWWD +0.29 -0.28 17% 7.9
6 Colorado Storm North 11344 2117+4 131.18 LDDDL -0.15 +0.14 3% 11.3
7 Real Colorado Olympico 13364 1619-3 151.15 DDWDW +0.04 -0.11 0% 12.9
8 Colorado Rush 11335 1518-3 121.09 LLLLW -0.16 +0.24 0% 14.7
9 CCV STARS 4112 57-2 41.00 LWDL -0.06 +0.05 2% 14.2
10 Colorado Storm Central 10019 231-29 10.10 LLLLL +0.41 +0.02 0% 19.0
11 Avalanche 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.02 ——
12 Boise Thorns 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——
13 El Paso Locomotive FC G10/11 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——
14 Idaho Rush 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——
15 La Roca FC North 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.01 ——
16 La Roca FC South 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.01 ——
17 NM Rapids SC 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——
18 NUU Avalanche 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——
19 Utah Surf 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.01 ——

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.