TableChase Clubs

Idaho Rush

ECNL Regional League Girls · Mountain GU16 · 19 teams · Idaho Rush Soccer Club (all teams)

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14th
0-0-0 record · 0 played
0.00 points per game
+0 goal diff · 0–0
last 0
15% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.1
+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 14, 09:00 AM

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Idaho Rush
14th · 0.00 PPG
at
Avalanche
11th · 0.00 PPG

St. Joseph Catholic High School, Turf Field ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.7 against · 1.25 expected points)

Season so farIdaho RushAvalanche
Position14th11th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-00-0-0
Points per game0.000.00
Goals for / game0.00.0
Goals against / game0.00.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)——
Biggest win——
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.00+0.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.00+0.00

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Avalanche average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 1.5); blanked in 0 of 0.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 34%; a draw (24%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at St. Joseph Catholic High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    El Paso Locomotive FC G10/11 sit 13th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above El Paso Locomotive FC G10/11 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Avalanche game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Idaho Rush – Avalanche) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.00 PPG
10th▲ up 4 11th▲ up 3 12th▲ up 2
Win
3.00 PPG
1st▲ up 13 1st▲ up 13 2nd▲ up 12
Draw
1.00 PPG
10th▲ up 4 12th▲ up 2 12th▲ up 2
Loss
0.00 PPG
19th▼ down 5 19th▼ down 5 19th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
15% top 4
85% below the top 4
10.1 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 3%
  3. 3rd 5%
  4. 4th 6%
  5. 5th 6%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 7%
  8. 8th 5%
  9. 9th 7%
  10. 10th 6%
  11. 11th 5%
  12. 12th 7%
  13. 13th 6%
  14. 14th 7%
  15. 15th 6%
  16. 16th 5%
  17. 17th 5%
  18. 18th 5%
  19. 19th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Colorado EDGE 2.27 (+2.27) 1st (2.21) A point next game
2 Arsenal Colorado 2.00 (+2.00) 2nd (1.89) A point next game
3 Arizona Soccer Club 1.75 (+1.75) 3rd (1.64) A point next game
4 Colorado Storm South 1.58 (+1.58) 4th (1.58) A point next game
5 Pride SC 1.44 (+1.44) 5th (1.52) A point next game
6 Colorado Storm North 1.18 (+1.18) 15th (1.32) A point next game
7 Real Colorado Olympico 1.15 (+1.15) 16th (1.23) A point next game
8 Colorado Rush 1.09 (+1.09) 17th (1.12) A point next game
9 CCV STARS 1.00 (+1.00) 18th (1.11) A point next game
10 Colorado Storm Central 0.10 (+0.10) 19th (0.20) Already ahead
11 Avalanche 0.00 (+0.00) 10th (1.38) Already ahead
12 Boise Thorns 0.00 (+0.00) 8th (1.39) Already ahead
13 El Paso Locomotive FC G10/11 0.00 (+0.00) 12th (1.37) Already ahead

Position over the season

16 game days

Not enough game days yet to draw a line.

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 10th hardest of 19

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
Avalanche
11th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
St. Joseph Catholic High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.25 1.25 Upside
Sun Nov 15
11:45 AM
La Roca FC North
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
La Roca Park
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.25 1.25 Upside
Sat Jan 23
TBD
Arsenal Colorado
2nd · 7-1-3 · GD +10
Away
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–1 0.86 1.12 Upside
Sun Jan 24
02:00 PM
Colorado EDGE
1st · 7-4-0 · GD +21
Away
Long Lake Regional Park · turf
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–2 0.54 0.98 Upside
Sat Feb 20
TBD
Colorado Storm North
6th · 3-4-4 · GD +4
Home
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.39 1.06 Upside
Sun Feb 21
TBD
Colorado Storm Central
10th · 0-1-9 · GD -29
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
2–0 2.64 1.32 Bank it
Sat Feb 27
TBD
NUU Avalanche
18th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.51 1.35 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
TBD
Boise Thorns
12th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.51 1.37 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Arizona Soccer Club
3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +2
Home
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.31 1.36 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD
CCV STARS
9th · 1-1-2 · GD -2
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
1–1 1.71 1.40 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
09:00 AM
Boise Thorns
12th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
Boise Timbers|Thorns - Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.25 1.38 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Utah Surf
19th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.25 1.37 Upside
Sun Apr 18
11:00 AM
La Roca FC South
16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
La Roca FC Utah County Complex
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.25 1.36 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD
NUU Avalanche
18th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.25 1.36 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Avalanche
11th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.51 1.37 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD
Utah Surf
19th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.51 1.38 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD
La Roca FC North
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.51 1.38 Swing game
Sun May 9
TBD
La Roca FC South
16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.51 1.39 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Colorado EDGE 11740 3211+21 252.27 WWDWD -0.25 -0.02 99% 1.3
2 Arsenal Colorado 11713 2212+10 222.00 WLDWW -0.15 +0.01 82% 3.2
3 Arizona Soccer Club 4211 64+2 71.75 WDWL -0.06 -0.06 39% 6.6
4 Colorado Storm South 12615 1617-1 191.58 WDLLW +0.18 -0.32 23% 7.0
5 Pride SC 9342 1716+1 131.44 DLWWD +0.29 -0.28 17% 8.0
6 Colorado Storm North 11344 2117+4 131.18 LDDDL -0.15 +0.14 3% 11.4
7 Real Colorado Olympico 13364 1619-3 151.15 DDWDW +0.04 -0.11 0% 12.9
8 Colorado Rush 11335 1518-3 121.09 LLLLW -0.16 +0.24 0% 14.6
9 CCV STARS 4112 57-2 41.00 LWDL -0.06 +0.05 3% 14.1
10 Colorado Storm Central 10019 231-29 10.10 LLLLL +0.41 +0.02 0% 19.0
11 Avalanche 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.02 ——
12 Boise Thorns 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——
13 El Paso Locomotive FC G10/11 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——
14 Idaho Rush 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——
15 La Roca FC North 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.01 ——
16 La Roca FC South 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.01 ——
17 NM Rapids SC 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——
18 NUU Avalanche 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——
19 Utah Surf 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.01 ——

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.