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Mississippi Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · Mid-America GU15 · 9 teams · Mississippi Surf (all teams)

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9th
0-0-2 record · 2 played
0.00 points per game
-4 goal diff · 2–6
LLlast 2
3% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.2
+0.72 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Dec 5, TBD

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Mississippi Surf
9th · 0.00 PPG
at
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro
7th · 0.00 PPG

Venue TBD

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.5 against · 0.86 expected points)

Season so farMississippi SurfTennessee SC Murfreesboro
Position9th7th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-20-0-0
Points per game0.000.00
Goals for / game1.00.0
Goals against / game3.00.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L L—
Biggest win——
Worst loss1–4 vs Mississippi Rush United—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.72+0.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.72+0.00

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Tennessee SC Murfreesboro average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 0 of 0.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 22%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff TBD at TBD.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Tennessee United SC sit 8th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above Tennessee United SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Tennessee SC Murfreesboro game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mississippi Surf – Tennessee SC Murfreesboro) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Nov 30 – Sun Dec 6); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Win
1.00 PPG		 2nd▲ up 7 4th▲ up 5 6th▲ up 3
Draw
0.33 PPG		 3rd▲ up 6 5th▲ up 4 7th▲ up 2
Loss
0.00 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
3% top 4
97% below the top 4
8.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 20%
  9. 9th 60%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Mississippi Rush United 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (1.95) 48 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2 Chattanooga Red Wolves 0.00 (+0.00) 6th (1.40) Already ahead
3 FC Alliance TN 0.00 (+0.00) 7th (1.40) Already ahead
4 Germantown Legends 0.00 (+0.00) 3rd (1.40) Already ahead
5 Indy Eleven Spirit 0.00 (+0.00) 2nd (1.43) Already ahead
6 Lobos Rush 0.00 (+0.00) 8th (1.40) Already ahead
7 Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 0.00 (+0.00) 4th (1.40) Already ahead
8 Tennessee United SC 0.00 (+0.00) 5th (1.40) Already ahead

Position over the season

2 game days

1st 5th 9th Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 9th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Dec 5
TBD		 Tennessee SC Murfreesboro
7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.86 0.29 Upside
Sat Feb 20
TBD		 Chattanooga Red Wolves
2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.86 0.43 Upside
Sun Feb 21
TBD		 FC Alliance TN
3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.86 0.51 Upside
Sat Mar 6
01:00 PM		 Lobos Rush
6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Home
BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–2 1.12 0.62 Upside
Sun Mar 21
09:00 AM		 Tennessee United SC
8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Drakes Creek Park (DCP)		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.86 0.65 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Chattanooga Red Wolves
2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–2 1.12 0.71 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 FC Alliance TN
3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–2 1.12 0.76 Upside
Tue Apr 13
06:30 PM		 Germantown Legends
4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Home
BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–2 1.12 0.79 Upside
Sat Apr 17
02:00 PM		 Lobos Rush
6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Away far trip
W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.86 0.80 Upside
Sun Apr 18
11:00 AM		 Germantown Legends
4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Snowden Groove Soccer Park 		●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.86 0.80 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Tennessee United SC
8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–2 1.12 0.83 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Tennessee SC Murfreesboro
7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–2 1.12 0.85 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD		 Indy Eleven Spirit
5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.86 0.85 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 Indy Eleven Spirit
5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.86 0.85 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Mississippi Rush United 2200 62+4 63.00 WW -0.72 +0.00 93% 1.9
2 Chattanooga Red Wolves 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
3 FC Alliance TN 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
4 Germantown Legends 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
5 Indy Eleven Spirit 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
6 Lobos Rush 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
7 Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
8 Tennessee United SC 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
9 Mississippi Surf 2002 26-4 00.00 LL +0.72 +0.00 3% 8.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.