Lobos Rush
ECNL Regional League Girls · Mid-America GU15 · 9 teams · Lobos Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sat Dec 5, 10:00 AM
W.C. Johnson Turf Park, Field 2 ↗ · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.9 against · 1.54 expected points)
| Season so far | Lobos Rush | FC Alliance TN |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
FC Alliance TN average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 45% / draw 21% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Indy Eleven Spirit sit 5th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Indy Eleven Spirit on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Alliance TN game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lobos Rush – FC Alliance TN) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 30 – Sun Dec 6); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 4 | 3rd▲ up 3 | 3rd▲ up 3 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 4 | 4th▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 2 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
3rd▲ up 3 | 4th▲ up 2 | 6th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
8th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 2 | 9th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 7%
- 2nd 10%
- 3rd 13%
- 4th 14%
- 5th 13%
- 6th 12%
- 7th 13%
- 8th 12%
- 9th 6%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mississippi Rush United | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (1.95) | Win next game |
| 2 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 0.00 (+0.00) | 6th (1.40) | Already ahead |
| 3 | FC Alliance TN | 0.00 (+0.00) | 7th (1.40) | Already ahead |
| 4 | Germantown Legends | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.40) | Already ahead |
| 5 | Indy Eleven Spirit | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.43) | Already ahead |
Position over the season
2 game days
Not enough game days yet to draw a line.
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 5th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Dec 5 10:00 AM |
FC Alliance TN 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–1 | 1.54 | 1.54 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 6 12:00 PM |
Chattanooga Red Wolves 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–1 | 1.54 | 1.54 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 04:00 PM |
Tennessee United SC 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–1 | 1.54 | 1.54 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 6 12:00 PM |
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Richard Siegel Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–2 | 1.25 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Wed Feb 10 06:00 PM |
Germantown Legends 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Mike Rose Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–2 | 1.25 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Thu Mar 4 06:00 PM |
Germantown Legends 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–1 | 1.54 | 1.45 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM |
Mississippi Surf 9th · 0-0-2 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.67 | 1.48 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 02:00 PM |
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–1 | 1.54 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 09:00 AM |
Chattanooga Red Wolves 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
CSLA |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–2 | 1.25 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 09:00 AM |
FC Alliance TN 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Hardin Valley Academy Stadium · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–2 | 1.25 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
Indy Eleven Spirit 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–1 | 1.54 | 1.45 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 03:00 PM |
Tennessee United SC 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Moss Wright Park (MWP) |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–2 | 1.25 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Indy Eleven Spirit 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–2 | 1.25 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 02:00 PM |
Mississippi Surf 9th · 0-0-2 · GD -4 |
Home W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.96 | 1.46 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM |
Mississippi Rush United 1st · 2-0-0 · GD +4 |
Home W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.12 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 09:00 AM |
Mississippi Rush United 1st · 2-0-0 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Freedom Ridge Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.86 | 1.40 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mississippi Rush United | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.72 | +0.00 | 93% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 20 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Feb 21 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sat Mar 20 at Tennessee United SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Tennessee SC Murfreesboro · Sat Dec 5 at Germantown Legends · Sun Dec 6 at Lobos Rush See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Alliance TN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at Lobos Rush · Sun Dec 6 at Germantown Legends · Sat Dec 12 vs Tennessee SC Murfreesboro See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Germantown Legends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Nov 22 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Dec 5 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sun Dec 6 vs FC Alliance TN See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Indy Eleven Spirit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Germantown Legends · Sat Feb 6 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Feb 7 at Chattanooga Red Wolves See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Lobos Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Dec 6 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sat Dec 12 vs Tennessee United SC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sat Dec 5 vs Mississippi Surf · Sat Dec 12 at FC Alliance TN See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Tennessee United SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Nov 22 at Germantown Legends · Sat Dec 12 at Lobos Rush · Sat Jan 30 at Chattanooga Red Wolves See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Mississippi Surf | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.72 | +0.00 | 3% | 8.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 5 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro · Sat Feb 20 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sun Feb 21 at FC Alliance TN See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.