FC 1974 Libertyville

ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU19 · 4 teams · Greater Libertyville Soccer Association (all teams)

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3rd

4-1-2 record · 7 played

1.86 points per game

+7 goal diff · 17–10

LDLWlast 4

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.7

-0.59 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM

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FC 1974 Libertyville
3rd · 1.86 PPG

Rockford Raptors FC
1st · 2.14 PPG

LTSC, Field 1 (11v11) ↗

26% 19% 55%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.7 for, 2.5 against · 0.97 expected points)

Season so far	FC 1974 Libertyville	Rockford Raptors FC
Position	3rd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-2	5-0-2
Points per game	1.86	2.14
Goals for / game	2.4	3.4
Goals against / game	1.4	1.1
Clean sheets	0	3
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W L D L	W L W L W
Biggest win	3–2 vs Chicago Inter	10–0 at FC Wisconsin
Worst loss	1–2 at Evolution	0–2 vs Evolution
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.22	+1.44
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.59	-0.44

Common opponents: Evolution — we 1–2; they 0–2. FC Wisconsin — we 2–2; they 10–0. Eclipse Select Soccer Club — we 2–3; they 2–0. Chicago Inter — we 3–2; they 2–3.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Rockford Raptors FC score 3.4/game — well above the league's 2.3.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Rockford Raptors FC concede only 1.1/game with 3 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 26%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Rockford Raptors FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC 1974 Libertyville – Rockford Raptors FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.63 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 2.00 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1	3rd— holds
Draw 1.75 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 1.63 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

5% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.7 average finish

1st 5%
2nd 16%
3rd 79%
4th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Rockford Raptors FC	2.14 (+0.28)	1st (2.11)	11 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
2	Evolution	2.14 (+0.28)	2nd (2.07)	11 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection

How the results connect

2 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link FC 1974 Libertyville to Rockford Raptors FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

1 favour them

-4.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

2 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.46 · 2nd hardest of 4

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM	Rockford Raptors FC 1st · 5-0-2 · GD +16	Home LTSC	●●●●○ Tough	26%	1–2	0.97	1.75	Upside
Sun Oct 25 04:00 PM	FC Wisconsin 4th · 1-1-4 · GD -15	Home LTSC	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	3–1	2.43	1.82	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM	Rockford Raptors FC 1st · 5-0-2 · GD +16	Away far trip Mercyhealth Sportscore Two	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–2	0.71	1.71	Upside
Sat Nov 14 04:00 PM	Evolution 2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +6	Home LTSC	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–1	1.22	1.67	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Rockford Raptors FC

+16

2.14

WLWLW

-0.44

-0.15

100%

1.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	2–3
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Nationals SC (—)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Evolution (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	FC Wisconsin (4th)	10–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Oct 25 at Evolution · Sat Oct 31 vs FC 1974 Libertyville See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (3rd)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Evolution (2nd)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (3rd)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Wisconsin (4th)	4–1	92%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Evolution

2.14

WWWL

+0.86

-0.44

100%

1.8

L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Rockford Raptors FC (1st)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (3rd)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Wisconsin · Sun Oct 25 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Wisconsin See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Wisconsin (4th)	2–1	74%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (1st)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Wisconsin (4th)	3–0	82%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (3rd)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC 1974 Libertyville

1.86

LDLW

-0.59

+0.46

100%

2.7

W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	2–3
D	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Wisconsin (4th)	2–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Evolution (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Wisconsin · Sat Oct 31 at Rockford Raptors FC See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (1st)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Wisconsin (4th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Rockford Raptors FC (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Evolution (2nd)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Wisconsin

-15

0.67

LDLL

+0.79

+0.60

100%

4.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (3rd)	2–2
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (1st)	0–10

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Evolution · Sun Oct 25 at FC 1974 Libertyville · Sat Oct 31 at Evolution See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Evolution (2nd)	1–2	11%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (3rd)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Evolution (2nd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Nationals SC (—)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Rockford Raptors FC (1st)	1–4	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.30 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.