Nationals SC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU16 · 5 teams · Nationals (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 01:00 PM
Detroit Country Day, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.3 for, 1.1 against · 2.10 expected points)
| Season so far | Nationals SC | Liverpool FC MI |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-1-1 | 2-1-5 |
| Points per game | 2.44 | 0.88 |
| Goals for / game | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W D W W W | L W W L D |
| Biggest win | 4–1 vs Evolution | 4–2 vs FC Wisconsin |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 0–3 vs FC 1974 Libertyville |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.85 | -0.66 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.37 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 27 3–2 vs Liverpool FC MI (W)
Common opponents: Michigan Hawks — we 2–0, 3–2; they 1–0. Eclipse Select Soccer Club — we 1–2; they 1–1. Chicago Inter — we 3–2, 2–0; they 0–3, 0–3. FC 1974 Libertyville — we 2–2; they 0–3. Evolution — we 4–1; they 2–3.
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 64% / draw 19% / loss 17%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Detroit Country Day.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Liverpool FC MI game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC – Liverpool FC MI) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.50 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.50 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.30 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.20 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 71%
- 2nd 29%
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
15 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Nationals SC to Liverpool FC MI through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.46 · 5th hardest of 5
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Liverpool FC MI 5th · 2-1-5 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Detroit Country Day |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.10 | 2.41 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 TBD |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 3rd · 3-1-4 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.91 | 2.36 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Nationals SC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 22 | 2.44 | WWWDW | +0.00 | -0.46 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Liverpool FC MI · Sun Nov 8 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Chicago Inter | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 18 | 2.25 | WWLLW | +0.02 | -0.40 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Michigan Hawks · Sun Nov 8 vs Michigan Hawks · Sat Nov 21 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 10 | 1.25 | LWDL | +0.09 | +0.15 | 88% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC MI · Sat Nov 7 vs Michigan Hawks · Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Michigan Hawks | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 9 | 1.13 | WLLLW | +0.12 | +0.20 | 71% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 7 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Chicago Inter See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Liverpool FC MI | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 7 | 0.88 | DLWWL | +0.37 | +0.03 | 41% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.