Michigan Hawks

ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU16 · 5 teams · Michigan Hawks (all teams)

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5th

2-0-5 record · 7 played

0.86 points per game

-8 goal diff · 12–20

WWLLLlast 5

34% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.6

+0.37 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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Michigan Hawks
5th · 0.86 PPG

Eclipse Select Soccer Club
3rd · 1.43 PPG

St. Joe's Sports Dome, St. Joe's Dome ↗

33% 24% 43%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.6 against · 1.23 expected points)

Season so far	Michigan Hawks	Eclipse Select Soccer Club
Position	5th	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-5	3-1-3
Points per game	0.86	1.43
Goals for / game	1.7	1.1
Goals against / game	2.9	1.6
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	4	0
Form (recent first)	L L L W W	D W L
Biggest win	5–0 vs FC Wisconsin	2–1 vs Nationals SC
Worst loss	0–7 vs Evolution	1–2 at Chicago Inter
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.60	-0.13
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.37	+0.33

Common opponents: Nationals SC — we 0–2, 2–3; they 2–1. Liverpool FC MI — we 0–1; they 1–1.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–2 at Nationals SC, 0–1 at Liverpool FC MI, 0–7 vs Evolution, 0–7 vs FC 1974 Libertyville.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 33%; a draw (24%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
What a win does
Liverpool FC MI sit 4th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.86.
A point moves us above Liverpool FC MI on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eclipse Select Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Michigan Hawks – Eclipse Select Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 0.88 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Win 1.13 PPG	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1	5th— holds
Draw 0.88 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Loss 0.75 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

34% top 4

66% below the top 4

4.6 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 6%
4th 28%
5th 66%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 1.75 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Nationals SC	2.44 (+1.58)	1st (2.35)	24 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Chicago Inter	2.14 (+1.28)	2nd (2.09)	20 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Eclipse Select Soccer Club	1.43 (+0.57)	3rd (1.39)	12 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
4	Liverpool FC MI	1.00 (+0.14)	4th (1.07)	A point next game

How the results connect

11 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Michigan Hawks to Eclipse Select Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us

2 even

6 favour them

-0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.11 · 2nd hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM	Eclipse Select Soccer Club 3rd · 3-1-3 · GD -3	Home St. Joe's Sports Dome	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–1	1.23	0.90	Upside
Sun Oct 25 01:20 PM	Chicago Inter 2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +11	Home Schoolcraft Turf · turf	●●●●● Very tough	19%	1–2	0.76	0.89	Upside
Sat Nov 7 TBD	Eclipse Select Soccer Club 3rd · 3-1-3 · GD -3	Away	●●●●○ Tough	25%	1–1	0.99	0.90	Upside
Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM	Chicago Inter 2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +11	Away far trip Chicago Inter Complex	●●●●● Very tough	13%	1–2	0.56	0.87	Upside
Sat Nov 21 TBD	Liverpool FC MI 4th · 2-1-4 · GD -5	Away	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–1	1.13	0.89	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Nationals SC

+13

2.44

WWWDW

-0.06

-0.26

100%

1.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Evolution (—)	4–1
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (—)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Chicago Inter (2nd)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Liverpool FC MI (4th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Chicago Inter (2nd)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Michigan Hawks (5th)	3–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Michigan Hawks (5th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Liverpool FC MI · Sun Nov 8 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Liverpool FC MI (4th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (3rd)	2–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Chicago Inter

+11

2.14

WWLL

+0.32

-0.43

100%

1.8

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Nationals SC (1st)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Nationals SC (1st)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Liverpool FC MI (4th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (3rd)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Liverpool FC MI · Sun Oct 25 at Michigan Hawks · Sun Nov 8 vs Michigan Hawks See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Liverpool FC MI (4th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Michigan Hawks (5th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Michigan Hawks (5th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (3rd)	1–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Eclipse Select Soccer Club

-3

1.43

LWD

+0.33

-0.03

95%

3.3

D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Liverpool FC MI (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Nationals SC (1st)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Chicago Inter (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Hawks · Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC MI · Sat Nov 7 vs Michigan Hawks See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Michigan Hawks (5th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Liverpool FC MI (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Michigan Hawks (5th)	1–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Nationals SC (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Chicago Inter (2nd)	1–1	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Liverpool FC MI

-5

1.00

LDLWW

+0.16

+0.14

71%

4.1

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Michigan Hawks (5th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Wisconsin (—)	4–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Nationals SC (1st)	2–3
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (3rd)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Chicago Inter (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Evolution (—)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (—)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sat Oct 24 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Oct 25 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (—)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Chicago Inter (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (3rd)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Nationals SC (1st)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Michigan Hawks (5th)	1–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Michigan Hawks

-8

0.86

WWLLL

+0.37

+0.11

34%

4.6

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (—)	0–7
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Evolution (—)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Liverpool FC MI (4th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (—)	5–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Wisconsin (—)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Nationals SC (1st)	2–3
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Nationals SC (1st)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 7 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (3rd)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Chicago Inter (2nd)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (3rd)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Chicago Inter (2nd)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Liverpool FC MI (4th)	1–1	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.43 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.