WNY Flash Rochester

ECNL Regional League Girls · GLA GU14 · 6 teams · WNY Flash Academy (all teams)

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4th

2-1-3 record · 6 played

1.17 points per game

-2 goal diff · 10–12

LLWDWlast 5

91% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.1

+1.42 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:30 AM

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WNY Flash Rochester
4th · 1.17 PPG

Manta
5th · 0.80 PPG

Our Lady of Mercy HS, Turf Field ↗ · turf

69% 16% 15%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.8 for, 1.3 against · 2.22 expected points)

Season so far	WNY Flash Rochester	Manta
Position	4th	5th
Record (W-D-L)	2-1-3	1-1-3
Points per game	1.17	0.80
Goals for / game	1.7	1.2
Goals against / game	2.0	3.2
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	0	2
Form (recent first)	W D W L L	L L L W
Biggest win	1–0 at Northern Steel	2–1 vs Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy
Worst loss	1–3 at WNY Flash Erie	0–5 vs Steel City FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.01	-1.36
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+1.42	+1.69

Common opponents: Steel City FC — we 3–4; they 0–5. Northern Steel — we 1–0; they 0–4.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 69% / draw 16% / loss 15%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Confidence is low on their side
Manta have lost 3 straight (form: WLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Manta game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (WNY Flash Rochester – Manta) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.43 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Win 1.43 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Draw 1.14 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1
Loss 1.00 PPG	5th▼ down 1	4th— holds	6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

91% top 4

9% below the top 4

4.1 average finish

1st <1%
2nd <1%
3rd 4%
4th 86%
5th 8%
6th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.21 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Northern Steel	2.57 (+1.40)	1st (2.28)	29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	WNY Flash Erie	2.40 (+1.23)	3rd (2.15)	27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
3	Steel City FC	2.29 (+1.12)	2nd (2.21)	26 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection

How the results connect

4 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link WNY Flash Rochester to Manta through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us

1 favour them

+3.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

5 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.15 · 5th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 11:30 AM	Manta 5th · 1-1-3 · GD -10	Home Our Lady of Mercy HS · turf	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	2–1	2.22	1.32	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM	Canton Force 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -8	Home Our Lady of Mercy HS · turf	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	3–1	2.21	1.43	Swing game
Sat Mar 13 TBD	Canton Force 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -8	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	2–1	1.94	1.49	Swing game
Sun Mar 14 TBD	Manta 5th · 1-1-3 · GD -10	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	2–1	1.96	1.53	Swing game
Sat Mar 20 TBD	Northern Steel 1st · 6-0-1 · GD +15	Home	●●●●● Very tough	20%	1–1	0.82	1.47	Upside
Sun Mar 21 TBD	Steel City FC 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +31	Home	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–3	0.68	1.40	Upside
Sun Apr 4 TBD	WNY Flash Erie 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9	Home	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–2	1.11	1.38	Upside
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	2–1	1.55	1.39	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Northern Steel

+15

2.57

LWWWW

-0.49

+0.36

100%

1.8

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Dayton (—)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (—)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Manta (5th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Canton Force (6th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (4th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	WNY Flash Erie (2nd)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Steel City FC · Sat Mar 20 at WNY Flash Rochester · Sun Mar 21 at WNY Flash Erie See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Steel City FC (3rd)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	WNY Flash Rochester (4th)	1–1	58%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	WNY Flash Erie (2nd)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Manta (5th)	3–0	85%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Canton Force (6th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Steel City FC (3rd)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Elite FC (—)	2–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Erie

2.40

WLWWW

+1.14

-0.26

100%

2.2

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Elite FC (—)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Columbus Force (—)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Steel City FC (3rd)	4–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Northern Steel (1st)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (4th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Canton Force · Sun Nov 1 vs Manta · Sat Mar 13 at Manta See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Canton Force (6th)	4–1	83%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Manta (5th)	3–1	83%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Manta (5th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Canton Force (6th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Steel City FC (3rd)	2–3	32%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Northern Steel (1st)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	WNY Flash Rochester (4th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	T3FC (—)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Steel City FC

+31

2.29

LWWDW

-0.48

+0.08

100%

2.0

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (—)	14–0
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Dayton (—)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Canton Force (6th)	9–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Manta (5th)	5–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	WNY Flash Erie (2nd)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (4th)	4–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Northern Steel · Sat Mar 20 at WNY Flash Erie · Sun Mar 21 at WNY Flash Rochester See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Northern Steel (1st)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	WNY Flash Erie (2nd)	3–2	52%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	WNY Flash Rochester (4th)	3–1	68%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Canton Force (6th)	6–1	94%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Manta (5th)	5–1	94%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Northern Steel (1st)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Columbus Force (—)	4–1	80%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Rochester

-2

1.17

LLWDW

+1.42

-0.15

91%

4.1

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Columbus Force (—)	2–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Elite FC (—)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Northern Steel (1st)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Steel City FC (3rd)	3–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	WNY Flash Erie (2nd)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Manta · Sun Nov 1 vs Canton Force · Sat Mar 13 at Canton Force See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Manta (5th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Canton Force (6th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Canton Force (6th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Manta (5th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Northern Steel (1st)	1–1	20%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Steel City FC (3rd)	1–3	18%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	WNY Flash Erie (2nd)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (—)	2–1	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Manta

-10

0.80

WLLL

+1.69

+0.26

5.4

L	Sat Oct 3	vs	T3FC (—)	3–5
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Northern Steel (1st)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Steel City FC (3rd)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (—)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Canton Force · Sat Oct 31 at WNY Flash Rochester · Sun Nov 1 at WNY Flash Erie See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Canton Force (6th)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	WNY Flash Rochester (4th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	WNY Flash Erie (2nd)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	WNY Flash Erie (2nd)	1–3	12%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Canton Force (6th)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Northern Steel (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Steel City FC (3rd)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (—)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Canton Force

-8

0.75

LLL

+1.69

+0.24

5.5

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	T3FC (—)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Steel City FC (3rd)	1–9
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Northern Steel (1st)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Manta · Sat Oct 31 at WNY Flash Erie · Sun Nov 1 at WNY Flash Rochester See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Manta (5th)	2–2	48%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	WNY Flash Erie (2nd)	1–4	8%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	WNY Flash Rochester (4th)	1–3	16%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (—)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	WNY Flash Rochester (4th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	WNY Flash Erie (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Manta (5th)	2–2	37%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Steel City FC (3rd)	1–6	2%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Northern Steel (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	FC Dayton (—)	1–2	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.28 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.