Team Boca
ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU17 · 8 teams · Team Boca (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Mullins Park, Field 1 - Turf ↗ · turf far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.1 against · 1.98 expected points)
| Season so far | Team Boca | Athletic Club Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-2 | 0-0-5 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals against / game | 2.5 | 4.2 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | D W L L | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 1–0 at AC Florida West | — |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at Cape Coral SA | 0–9 at SFFA |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.85 | -2.23 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.35 | +0.62 |
Common opponents: SWFL PREMIER FC — we 1–4; they 0–4. Cape Coral SA — we 0–5; they 1–2. AC Florida West — we 1–0; they 0–4. ACF Sunrise — we 1–1; they 0–2.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Athletic Club Florida average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 4 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Athletic Club Florida concede 4.2/game; worst result 0–9 at SFFA.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 at Cape Coral SA.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 59% / draw 21% / loss 20%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Confidence is low on their side
Athletic Club Florida have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Mullins Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Athletic Club Florida Miami sit 5th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above Athletic Club Florida Miami on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Athletic Club Florida game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Team Boca – Athletic Club Florida) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.40 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 2 | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.40 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 2 | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.80 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 8th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 6%
- 5th 13%
- 6th 36%
- 7th 43%
- 8th 1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.43 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.48) | 38 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | SFFA | 2.25 (+1.25) | 2nd (2.29) | 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 3 | Cape Coral SA | 2.00 (+1.00) | 3rd (1.71) | 24 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 4 | ACF Sunrise | 1.75 (+0.75) | 5th (1.35) | 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 5 | Athletic Club Florida Miami | 1.20 (+0.20) | 4th (1.47) | A point next game |
How the results connect
12 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Team Boca to Athletic Club Florida through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.03 · 4th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 12 03:00 PM no score posted |
Athletic Club Florida Miami 5th · 2-0-3 · GD -1 |
Home SPANISH RIVER SPORTS COMPLEX |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.99 | 1.00 | Upside |
| Sun Sep 13 11:00 AM no score posted |
Athletic Club Florida 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -20 |
Home Fau Glades |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–0 | 2.20 | 1.20 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
Athletic Club Florida 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -20 |
Away far trip
Mullins Park · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.98 | 1.31 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 10:30 AM |
Athletic Club Florida Miami 5th · 2-0-3 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Southeast Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.75 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 02:30 PM |
SFFA 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +13 |
Away Canyon District Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.23 | 1.13 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 03:00 PM |
Cape Coral SA 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +0 |
Home Fau Glades |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.97 | 1.11 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
SWFL PREMIER FC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +17 |
Home Fau Glades |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.33 | 1.04 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM |
AC Florida West 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -1 |
Home Fau Glades |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.13 | 1.05 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 09:00 AM |
ACF Sunrise 4th · 2-1-1 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.94 | 1.04 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 01:00 PM |
SFFA 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +13 |
Home Fau Glades |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–2 | 0.34 | 0.99 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.64 | -0.04 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Florida West · Sun Oct 25 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Mar 6 vs SFFA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | SFFA | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | -0.58 | -0.08 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at AC Florida West · Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Cape Coral SA | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 13 | +0 | 12 | 2.00 | WWLWL | +0.02 | -0.02 | 86% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida West See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | ACF Sunrise | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 | 1.75 | WWDL | -0.32 | +0.19 | 38% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Aug 23 at AC Florida West · Sat Sep 12 vs Cape Coral SA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Athletic Club Florida Miami | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLLW | +0.62 | -0.34 | 64% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Team Boca · Sat Oct 24 vs SFFA · Sun Oct 25 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Team Boca | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 4 | 1.00 | LLWD | +0.35 | +0.03 | 6% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sun Sep 13 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | AC Florida West | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWLL | -0.17 | +0.19 | 5% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 23 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Sep 26 vs SFFA · Sat Oct 24 at SWFL PREMIER FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Athletic Club Florida | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 21 | -20 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.62 | +0.16 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Sep 13 at Team Boca · Sat Oct 24 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.