ACF Sunrise
ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU17 · 8 teams · ACF Sunrise (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM
Lakewood Ranch Park, Field 5 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.1 for, 3.7 against · 0.30 expected points)
| Season so far | ACF Sunrise | SWFL PREMIER FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-2 | 6-0-0 |
| Points per game | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.2 | 4.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L D W W | W W W W W |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs Athletic Club Florida | 9–2 vs Cape Coral SA |
| Worst loss | 0–4 at SFFA | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.41 | +1.97 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.22 | -0.63 |
Common opponents: Athletic Club Florida — we 2–0; they 4–0. Athletic Club Florida Miami — we 1–0; they 4–2. Team Boca — we 1–1; they 4–1. Cape Coral SA — we 2–4; they 9–2.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
SWFL PREMIER FC score 4.5/game — well above the league's 1.9.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at SFFA.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 7%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
SWFL PREMIER FC have won 6 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Lakewood Ranch Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the SWFL PREMIER FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ACF Sunrise – SWFL PREMIER FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.17 PPG |
4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.67 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.33 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.17 PPG |
4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 3%
- 4th 24%
- 5th 40%
- 6th 22%
- 7th 11%
- 8th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.43 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 3.00 (+1.60) | 1st (2.56) | 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | SFFA | 2.40 (+1.00) | 2nd (2.35) | 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 3 | Cape Coral SA | 2.14 (+0.74) | 3rd (1.86) | 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
How the results connect
22 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link ACF Sunrise to SWFL PREMIER FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.20 · 1st hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jan 1 TBD no score posted |
Athletic Club Florida 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -20 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–0 | 2.19 | 1.53 | Swing game |
| Sun Aug 23 TBD no score posted |
AC Florida West 7th · 1-0-5 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.49 | Upside |
| Sat Sep 12 05:00 PM no score posted |
Cape Coral SA 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +2 |
Home Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.16 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
SWFL PREMIER FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +20 |
Away far trip
Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.30 | 1.32 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 11:30 AM |
Athletic Club Florida Miami 5th · 2-0-4 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Miami Dade College |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–1 | 1.07 | 1.30 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 11:00 AM |
SWFL PREMIER FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +20 |
Home Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.46 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM |
SFFA 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +15 |
Home Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
0–2 | 0.47 | 1.16 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 09:00 AM |
Team Boca 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -7 |
Home Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
1–1 | 1.75 | 1.20 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 01:00 PM |
AC Florida West 7th · 1-0-5 · GD -4 |
Home Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
1–1 | 1.50 | 1.22 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.63 | -0.06 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Mar 6 vs SFFA · Sun Mar 7 at ACF Sunrise See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | SFFA | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 12 | 2.40 | WWLWW | -0.51 | -0.11 | 100% | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at AC Florida West · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida · Sat Oct 31 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Cape Coral SA | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 | 2.14 | WLWLW | -0.07 | -0.05 | 98% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at ACF Sunrise · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida West · Sat Apr 3 at Team Boca See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | ACF Sunrise | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 | 1.40 | WWDLL | -0.22 | +0.20 | 27% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Aug 23 at AC Florida West · Sat Sep 12 vs Cape Coral SA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Athletic Club Florida Miami | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 | 1.00 | WLLWL | +0.81 | -0.60 | 63% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Team Boca · Sun Oct 25 vs Team Boca · Sat Oct 31 at Athletic Club Florida See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Team Boca | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 4 | 1.00 | LLWD | +0.31 | +0.00 | 8% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sun Sep 13 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | AC Florida West | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 3 | 0.50 | LWLLL | +0.26 | -0.06 | 4% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 23 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Sep 26 vs SFFA · Sun Oct 25 at Cape Coral SA See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Athletic Club Florida | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 21 | -20 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.61 | +0.12 | 0% | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Sep 13 at Team Boca · Sat Oct 24 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.92 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.